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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has cut its estimate of global cotton output in 2025-26 (Aug-Jul) by 1.8 million bales (each of 480 pounds) to 116.62 million bales, it said in the August version of its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates monthly report. In the July edition, it had estimated the output at 118.42 million bales.

The report has also lowered the estimates for consumption, trade, and beginning as well as ending stocks, presenting a weak cotton balance sheet.

The production figure is lower in the latest estimates "as a result of reductions for the United States, Sudan, Uzbekistan, and Mali that more than offset a larger crop in China", it said.

As is the case with production, global consumption of cotton is also projected lower. "The forecast for world consumption is reduced over 100,000 bales as lower mill use in India, Bangladesh, and Turkey more than offsets an increase for China." As per the August report, global consumption of cotton is seen at 117.99 million bales, against 118.12 million bales projected in July.

World trade is seen declining by 1.1 million bales with projected lower exports, mainly from for the US, Sudan, and Mali.

The estimate for stocks at the beginning of the year has been reduced by 1.7 million bales to 75.05 million bales, largely reflecting higher consumption in China and Brazil in 2024-25. With lower beginning stocks and production, ending stocks for 2025-26 are seen sliding by over 3.4 million bales to 73.91 million bales, the report said.

For India, the USDA WASDE report has retained its cotton output estimate at 23.5 million bales and exports estimate at 1.0 million bales but raised the opening stocks and closing stocks estimates. Opening stocks of cotton in 2025-26 are now seen at 9.85 million bales as against 9.75 million bales projected a month ago. Likewise, the closing stocks estimate has been revised to 10.25 million bales from 9.75 million bales. It has also lowered the consumption estimate to 25 million bales from 25.50 million bales forecast in July.

The Cotton Association of India, the leading lobby of cotton value chain in the country, had in July estimated local production of cotton in 2024-25 (Oct-Sept) at 38.1 million bales (each of 170 kg), consumption at 30.8 million bales, and exports at 1.7 million bales. As reported by Informist, it had estimated cotton imports by India in 2024-25 at 3.9 million bales, with closing stocks at 5.6 million bales.  End

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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