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Informist, Monday, Aug. 4, 2025

 

By Ashutosh Pati    

 

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the COMEX rose Monday as weak economic data from the US raised expectations of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September. Market sentiment was also lifted as US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs raised the safe-haven appeal of the precious metal.

 

At 1708 IST, the most-active December GOLD contract on the COMEX was 0.6% higher at $3,420.9 per ounce. The most-active October gold contract on the MCX was at INR 99,959 per 10 grams, up 1.2% from the previous close. 

 

US non-farm payrolls rose by 73,000 in July, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This reading was worse than the market expectation of 110,000, and followed the increase of 14,000 in revised figure recorded for June. This pointed to a worse off labour market than earlier thought and raised investors' expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The CME's FedWatch tool now shows nearly 88% chances of a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee in September, against 63% a week ago. Lower interest rates make the non-interest-bearing precious metal more attractive to investors.

 

"COMEX Gold December futures steadied near $3,410/oz after posting a 2.2% gain on Friday—the strongest single-day rise in two months—as traders assessed the implications of a sharply weaker US jobs report and its impact on the Fed's rate path," Kotak Securities said in a report. "Markets also reacted to President Trump's announcement of sweeping trade tariffs, among the steepest since the 1930s, and his abrupt dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief."

 

Trump Thursday signed an executive order, which modified reciprocal tariffs on several countries, with updated tariffs now ranging from 10-40%. Trump said countries that are not listed in the latest order will face an additional tariff of 10%.

 

SILVER contracts rose on the MCX and the COMEX, tracking gains in gold and industrial metals. At 1717 IST, the most-active September silver contract on the MCX was 1.5% higher at INR 111,881 per kg. The same-month contract on COMEX was up 1.1% at $37.33 per ounce.

 

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 98,992–INR 101,968 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,293.1–$3,422.0 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 108,934-INR 114,524 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $36.09-$38.37 an ounce

End

 

US$1 = INR 87.65

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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