India Rupee Review
Steady; importers' dlr buys offset dlr sales by exporters
This story was originally published at 17:33 IST on 24 July 2025
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By Gowri Lakshmi
MUMBAI – The rupee ended steady against the dollar for the second consecutive day as banks' dollar purchases on behalf of importers offset dollar sales for exporters, dealers said. A slight rise in the dollar index during the day also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. "Importers' dollar buys are always there, but exporters have become active now, anywhere between 86.25-86.50 (a dollar) is a good level for them," a currency trader at a brokerage firm said.
After rising to a high of 86.2400 a dollar, the Indian unit settled at 86.4050 against the greenback, little changed from Wednesday's close of 86.4075. The Indian unit moved in a range of over 17 paise during the day.
Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar on improved investor sentiment after the US struck its latest deal with Japan. Other Asian currencies rose between 0.1-0.4% against the greenback, with the South Korean won and the Philippines' peso being the biggest gainers. Asian currencies also strengthened due to broad-based weakness in the dollar index.
The rupee started the day slightly higher against the dollar at 86.3300, tracking a rise in the offshore Chinese yuan and weakness in the dollar index, dealers said. A rise in other Asian currencies also supported the rupee in early trade, dealers said. The offshore Chinese yuan hit an eight-month high against the dollar during Asian trading hours as investor sentiment improved after the US struck a trade deal with Japan.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announnced a new trade agreenent with Tokyo, which lowered duties on auto importers and spared new levies on other good, in exchange for a $550-billion package of US-bound investment and loans. Import duties on other Japanese goods to the US were also reduced to 15% from 25%.
A weak dollar index also supported the rupee in early trade. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell to an over two-week low of 97.11 in early trade. The dollar remained broadly steady in Asian trading hours as investors brace for the US Federal Open Market Committee's policy next week.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see a 97.4% chance of the US central bank keeping the Federal Funds target range unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. Meanwhile, media reports Thursday said Trump would make a visit to the US central bank later in the day, in a move that might escalate the ongoing tussle between the Trump administration and the US Federal Reserve. Trump has repeatedly criticised and threatened to fire US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates aggressively and called him a "numbskull" Tuesday.
However, the rise of the rupee was immediately capped as banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said.
The pressure on rupee eased as exporters sold dollars to take advantage of the lucrative dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. Exporters sold dollars below 86.35 a dollar and below levels, dealers said. A few banks also sold dollars during the daily reference-rate fixing window, which limited a fall in the rupee, dealers said. The rupee hit a low of 86.4125 a dollar. Dealers said a few traders also unwound long-dollar bets due to the sustained weakness of the dollar and an improving investor sentiment over India-US trade deal.
"I feel the rupee will appreciate significantly, may be back to even 86 (a dollar) as we can see so many inflows coming in. Moreover, I feel the India-US deal will be strong one, even though it has gone haywire a bit."
Despite the dollar sales, the rupee came under pressure after the dollar index recovered from the day's low during the European market session, following a fall in the euro. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 97.39, steady against 97.21 Wednesday and 97.40 Tuesday.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 86.4050 | 86.3300 | 86.2400 | 86.4125 | 86.4075 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 174.94 | 174.94 | 175.38 | 173.00 | 175.42 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended steady Thursday as some bank's forward dollar purchases offset the impact of a rise in the benchmark US Treasury yield, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose on improved risk appetite after the US struck a trade deal with Japan and appeared to reach an agreement with the European Union soon. The yield also rose as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell need not resign.
Near-term dollar/rupee forward premiums also rose as banks purchased forward dollars to take advantage of the arbitrage between the onshore forward and offshore non-deliverable forward premium, dealers said.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.02%, unchanged from Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was at 174.93 paise, against 175.42 paise Wednesday.
OUTLOOK
Friday, the rupee will take cues from the movements of the dollar index and offshore Chinese yuan, dealers said. Market participants await the US weekly initial jobless claims data for the week ended Saturday due later in the day, to get more cues into the US labor market and the interest rate-outlook by the US Federal Reserve.
Dealers expect the rupee to likely strengthen owing to foreign fund inflows related to initial public offerings of domestic companies. The National Securities Depository Ltd. issue will be open for subscription from Jul. 30, the company announced Thursday. The size of the issue is pegged at INR 40 billion.
However, the rise of the rupee may be limited as importers may rush to purchase the greenback in order to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. Importers may also begin to purchase dollars for their month-end payment related obligations, which may put the rupee under pressure, dealers said.
During the day, the rupee is expected to move in range of 86.10 and 86.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg key technical resistance for the Indian unit at 86.15 a dollar.
India Rupee - World FX: Euro dn 0.1% ahead of policy decision by ECB due Thu
| AT 1526 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3546 | 1.3588 | 1.3540 | 1.3579 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1750 | 1.1780 | 1.1747 | 1.1770 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6051 | 0.6059 | 0.6042 | 0.6042 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6617 | 0.6625 | 0.6597 | 0.6598 |
| USD/JPY | 146.6090 | 146.6450 | 145.8500 | 146.4490 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3611 | 1.3614 | 1.3597 | 1.3595 |
| EUR/JPY | 172.2610 | 172.4962 | 171.7000 | 172.3629 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2584 | 1.2633 | 1.2582 | 1.2606 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9337 | 0.9339 | 0.9324 | 0.9318 |
MUMBAI – The euro was down 0.1% against the US dollar Thursday ahead of the monetary policy outcome by the European Central Bank later in the day, with the central bank widely expected to hold benchmark lending rates steady for the first time in over a year. Losses in the currency were limited as the preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers' index for the Euro bloc advanced in July. The Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 49.8, in line with market expectations, while the bloc's services purchasing managers' index rising to 51.2 this month.
Meanwhile, the purchasing manufacturing index in Germany, the Euro bloc's largest economy, inched up to 49.2 in July from 49.0 in June. The services purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 from 40.7.
However, the euro was also weighed down as consumer confidence in Germany fell for the second consecutive month due to economic uncertainty. The consumer-climate index published earlier in the day showed consumer confience fell to -21.5 in its forecast for August, 1.2 points lower than July. Economists had forecast the gauge to rise to -20 in a poll by The Wall Street Journal.
A fall in the euro lifted the dollar index, which weakened in early Asian due to strength in the Japanese yen. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.39, against 97.21 Wednesday and down from 97.40 Tuesday. The index fell to a low of 97.11, its lowest level since Jul. 7.
Investors are bracing for the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting next week. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, traders see a 97.4% probability of the central bank holding the Federal Funds target range at 4.25-4.50%. Market participants will also assess the weekly jobless claims data from the US later in the day for more cues on the US labour market and the interest-rate outlook by the US Fed.
The Japanese yen was flat against the dollar. The Japanese currency was weighed down after data published earlier in the day showed the country's factory activity fell in July. Japan's manufacturing activity slipped to the contraction zone in July, hit by uncertainties over US tariffs. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 48.8 in July from a final reading of 50.1 in June. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector. However, the services purchasing managers' index rose to 53.5 from 51.7 in June.
The pound sterling was down 0.2% against the greenback. The UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 48.2 in July from 47.7 in the previous month. The reading was also slightly higher than the preliminary forecast of 48.
The Australian dollar was up 0.2% against the US currency after Australia's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 51.6 in July, against June's 50.6. The Judo Bank Australian services purchasing managers' index also climbed to 53.8 in July from 51.8 in June, while the composite purchasing managers' index rose to 53.6 in July against 51.6 the previous month. The New Zealand dollar was flat against the greenback and the Swiss franc rose 0.2%.
The Canadian dollar was up 0.1% ahead of retail sales data for May and preliminary retail sales figure for June, both due later in the day. (Gowri Lakshmi)
India Rupee: Premium steady as banks' fwd dollar buys offset rise in US yld
| AT 1411 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 86.3775 | 86.3300 | 86.2400 | 86.4000 | 86.4075 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 174.94 | 174.94 | 175.38 | 173.00 | 175.42 |
MUMBAI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium was steady Thursday as some bank's forward dollar purchases offset the impact of a rise in the benchmark US Treasury yield, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose Wednesday on improved risk appetite after the US struck a trade deal with Japan and appeared to reach an agreement with the European Union soon. The yield also rose as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell need not resign.
"There are some good receiving seen at these levels but also some paying is happening; especially in October and September," a currency trader at a brokerage firm said. "A lot of bids have come in after the NSDL (National Securities Depository Ltd.) IPO (initial public offering)."
The National Securities Depository Ltd. issue will be open for subscription from Jul. 30, the company announced Thursday. The size of the issue is pegged at INR 40 billion. The IPO is solely an offer for sale of 50.1 million shares by selling shareholders – IDBI Bank, National Stock Exchange and Union Bank of India, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank and Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India.
Near-term dollar/rupee forward premiums also rose as banks purchased forward dollars to take advantage of the arbitrage between the onshore forward and offshore non-deliverable forward premium, dealers said. "There is onshore-offshore arbitrage happening in the near tenors, that is keeping the market biddish," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
Market participants now brace for the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting decision on Jul. 30, where traders see a 97.4% probability of the US central bank maintaining the Federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors also await the weekly initial jobless claims data for the week ended Saturday, due later in the day, to get more cues into the health of the US labour market and the interest rate outlook by the US Fed.
At 1409 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.03%, little changed from Wednessday's 2.02%. On an absolute basis, the premium was at 174.94 paise, against 175.42 paise Wednesday. (Gowri Lakshmi)
India Rupee: Steady as dollar sales by exporters offset importers' dlr buys
| AT 1344 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 86.3825 | 86.3300 | 86.2400 | 86.4000 | 86.4075 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar Thursday as banks' dollar sales for exporters offset demand for dollars from importers, dealers said. A rise in the dollar index also weighed on the rupee, they said.
The rupee rose sharply in the morning, tracking a rise in the offshore Chinese yuan and a fall in the dollar index, dealers said. Noting the rise of the rupee, a few importers purchased the greenback, to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. This prevented further rise of the domestic unit, they said.
The rupee was also weighed down as the dollar index rose, after weakening slightly in early trade, due to a fall in the euro. At 1401 IST, the dollar index was at 97.25, against 97.21 Wednesday and 97.40 Tuesday. The index hit a low of 97.11 earlier in the day, the lowest level since Jul. 7.
However, banks sold the greenback during the daily-reference rate-fixing window, which supported the rupee, dealers said. A few exporters also sold the greenback when the rupee fell below 86.35 a dollar to take advantage of the lucrative dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. "If the dollar index continues to rise during the day, I feel rupee will test 86.45 today (Thursday) as well, and if they (Reserve Bank of India) don't guard, 86.60 is easy," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
During the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 86.15 to 86.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg key technical support at 86.45 a dollar. (Gowri Lakshmi)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 24
MUMBAI – At 1106 IST, the rupee was at 86.2750 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 86.3300 a dollar, against the previous close of 86.4075. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Private-sector bank | 86.50 | 86.43 | 86.18 | 86.15 |
| Private-sector bank | 86.50 | 86.40 | 86.20 | 86.18 |
| Foreign bank | 86.70 | 86.50 | 86.35 | 86.20 |
(Gowri Lakshmi)
India Rupee: Sharply up tracking rise in Chinese yuan, fall in dollar index
| AT 0916 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 86.2600 | 86.3300 | 86.2500 | 86.3475 | 86.4075 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was sharply up against the dollar Thursday tracking a rise in offshore Chinese yuan and as the dollar index fell to an over two-week low, dealers said. Rise in other Asian currencies also supported the rupee, dealers said. However, they said, dollar purchases by importers capped the rise of the Indian unit.
"The rupee levels are reflecting rise in yuan and fall in the dollar," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Of course, importers are there always to cap the rise. The rupee would have hit 86.15-86.10 (a dollar) otherwise."
The offshore Chinese yuan hit an eight-month high against the dollar in early trade and other Asian currencies also posted significant gains against the greenback as investor sentiment improved after the US-Japan trade deal, dealers said. US President Donald Trump Tuesday struck a trade deal with Japan, which lowered import duties on auto importers and spared Japan from new levies on other goods in exchange for a $550 billion package of US-bound investment and loans. Tariffs on other Japanese imports into the US were also reduced to 15% from 25% earlier.
The dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, remained weak but broadly steady as investors brace for the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting next week, amid a series of public backlash and criticism against US Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering the benchmark lending rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see a 97.4% chance of the US central bank maintaining the Fed Funds target range unchanged at 4.25-4.50%.
On Thursday, media reports said Trump will visit the US central bank later in the day, a move which may escalate the tussle between the central bank and the Trump administration. Trump has repeatedly criticised and threatened to fire Powell for not cutting interest rates aggressively and called him a "numbskull" Tuesday. At 0942 IST, the dollar index was at 97.18, against 97.21 Wednesday and 97.40 Tuesday. The index hit a low of 97.11 earlier in the day, the lowest level since Jul. 7.
However, the rise of the Indian unit was limited as importers purchased the greenback to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said.
During the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 86.15 to 86.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg key technical resistance at 86.15 a dollar. (Gowri Lakshmi)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 24
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 86.50 | 86.25 |
| Private-sector bank | 86.50 | 86.20 |
| Private-sector bank | 86.50 | 86.10 |
| Private-sector bank | 86.50 | 86.15 |
| Foreign bank | 86.45 | 86.25 |
| Foreign bank | 86.60 | 86.20 |
| Brokerage firm | 86.50 | 86.15 |
| Brokerage firm | 86.60 | 86.10 |
| Brokerage firm | 86.55 | 86.15 |
(Gowri Lakshmi and Sourabh Kumar)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up on US trade deal optimism; dollar index falls
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar Thursday on improved sentiment about US' tariff policies after its latest deal with Japan and indications of similar advancement in trade talks with the European Union. Asian currencies were also up as the dollar index declined to an over two-week low after the Japanese yen strengthened.
US President Donald Trump Tuesday struck a trade deal with Japan, which lowered import duties on auto importers and spares Japan from the new levies on other goods in exchange for a $550 billion package of US-bound investment and loans. On Wednesday, Trump said Japan and Indonesia were opening their markets to the US.
"I will only lower tariffs if a country agrees to open its market," Trump said. He also said late Tuesday that the European Union and other deals are coming in, without specifying any details.
"The EU's primary focus is on achieving a negotiated outcome with the US. Intensive technical and political level contact is ongoing," European Commission spokesperson Marcos Sefcovic said.
The dollar index remained steady but broadly weaker. Investors are bracing for the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting next week. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, traders see a 97.4% probability of the central bank holding the Fed Funds target range at 4.25-4.50%. At 0821 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.19, against 97.21 Wednesday and down from 97.40 Tuesday. The index fell to a low of 97.11, its lowest level since Jul. 7.
The offshore Chinese yuan was up 0.2%, rising to an eight-month high against the dollar in early Asian trade. The Indonesian rupiah was up 0.1% against the greenback. The Philippines' peso rose 0.4% against the US unit. Trump said Philippines will pay a 19% tariff on exports into the US.
The Malaysian ringgit was up 0.2% against the greenback after Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim unveiled plans to lift the cost of living. As part of a support package, Anwar announced a payout of $24 or 100 ringgit to Malaysian citizens aged 18 and above. The country will also effectively continue to help people pay for RON95, the cheapest and most popular fuel by reducing the price to 1.99 ringgit per litre from 2.05 ringgit.
The Thai baht was up 0.3% against the greenback. Thailand's central bank Tuesday approved the appointment of Vitai Ratanakorn as the next governor of Bank of Thailand and revive a sluggish economy. His appointment would be subject to approval of Thailand's king before his five-year term begins on Oct. 1.
The South Korean won was up 0.6% against the US currency as the country avoided a recession after its economy expanded 0.6% sequentially in the June quarter, beating analyst expectations. A Reuters poll citing economists had forecast a rise of 0.5%, a reversal from 0.2% contraction seen in Jan-Mar. On year, the country's GDP rose 0.5%.
The Taiwan dollar was up 0.3% against the greenback after reports that Taiwan plans to launch its "Ten Major AI Infrastructure Projects" initiative, aimed at generating over $510 billion in its economic value by 2040. Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai said in a Facebook post late Tuesday that the country aims to leverage its information and communication technology sector and semiconductor manufacturing capabilities to become a global artificial intelligence leader. (Gowri Lakshmi) End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Avishek Dutta and Vandana Hingorani
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