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Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 22, 2025

 

MUMBAI – India is projected to surpass China as the world's largest cotton producer by 2034 due to a likely increase in cotton yields from its current low levels, according to the Agricultural Outlook 2025-34 by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and Food and Agriculture Organization. India's production is estimated to grow by around 2% per annum over the next decade, according to the report.

 

India's cotton production is seen rising to 6.86 million tonnes in 2034 from 5.73 million tonnes in 2025, mainly on account of improvement in yield rather than expansion in area, since cotton already competes for land with other crops such as soybean and pulses, the report said. Raw cotton productivity has remained stagnant in India over the recent years and is among the lowest globally, the report said.

 

India's yield is likely to grow 1.7% per annum over the next decade, rising to 0.54 tonnes per hectare in 2034 from 0.47 tonnes per hectare in 2025, data from the report showed. However, India's yield is expected to remain below the world average yield, which is likely to rise to 0.90 tonnes per hectare in 2034 from 0.81 tonnes per hectare in 2025, the data showed.

 

Cotton is traditionally grown on small farms in India, which limits the adoption of intensive farming technologies. Furthermore, farmers in India allocate more row space between plants to accommodate the passage of a bullock and cultivator for weed control purposes, reducing plant density and overall yield potential, the report said. To address this, researchers are promoting high-density planting systems, which involve closer plant spacing to maximise yields and enable mechanised harvesting. Pest-resistant genetically modified cotton, including BT cotton, has also helped reduce pest-related yield losses and dependency on chemical pesticides, leading to increased productivity and cost savings, as per the report.

Meanwhile, drought-tolerant cotton varieties developed through conventional breeding are also being promoted to sustain yields in water-stressed regions in India. Central and state government agencies, along with research institutions, are actively engaged in cotton varietal development and integrated pest management to enhance productivity in the sector, which is likely to contribute to the rise in yield, the report said.

 

Global production of cotton is expected to grow steadily and reach 29.5 million tonnes by 2034 from 26.1 million tonnes in 2025, as per the report. India will account for about 30% of the global increase, followed by Brazil at 27%, and the US at 23%, according to the report.

 

Global use of raw cotton is projected to grow 1.2% annually, driven by increasing textile demand in middle and low-income countries. In India, the world's second-largest cotton processing country, the growing textile industry - supported by various government initiatives and foreign direct investment inflows - is expected to result in continuous growth in cotton mill use, the report said. Nevertheless, China is expected to remain the largest cotton processing country in 2034, followed by India, with consumption projected to grow by 0.3% and 1.3% per annum, respectively, over the next decade, the report said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Nishant Maher

 

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