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Informist, Saturday, Jul. 12, 2025

 

NEW DELHI – The US Department of Agriculture has cut its estimate for global wheat supply to 1.07 billion tonnes in 2025-26, down 400,000 tonnes from its June projection, citing lower beginning stocks and production. Declines in output in Canada, Ukraine, and Iran more than offset gains in Kazakhstan, the European Union, Pakistan, and Russia, the department said in its July report.

 

"This month's 2025-26 global wheat outlook is for reduced supplies, higher consumption, lower trade, and reduced ending stocks," the report said. Global consumption is projected to rise by 800,000 tonnes to 810.6 million tonnes, primarily due to higher feed and residual use in Kazakhstan and Thailand.

 

Trade is forecast at 213.1 million tonnes, down 1.3 million tonnes due to reduced exports from the European Union and Ukraine, only partly offset by higher shipments from Russia and the US.

 

Ending stocks for global wheat are now projected at 261.5 million tonnes, 1.2 million tonnes lower than in June, primarily due to downward revisions for Canada and the EU.

 

For India, USDA has maintained its wheat production estimate at 117.5 million tonnes. However, domestic use has been reduced by 500,000 tonnes to 112.5 million tonnes, resulting in a corresponding increase in ending stocks to 17.0 million tonnes.

 

RICE

The global outlook for rice in 2025–26 remains mostly unchanged in terms of supply, while consumption, trade, and ending stocks have been revised. "World supplies are virtually unchanged as reduced production in the US is offset by higher beginning stocks primarily in the Philippines and Ghana," the USDA said.

 

Global rice consumption is projected at a record 541.6 million tonnes, up 600,000 tonnes from June, driven by increased feed use in China due to additional government stock releases. World rice production estimates are unchanged at 728.9 million tonnes. 

 

Global trade in rice has been revised up slightly to 61.8 million tonnes due to higher exports from Burma. Ending stocks are lowered by 500,000 tonnes to 187.3 million tonnes, with cuts mainly in China and Burma.

 

For India, USDA has retained its estimates for production at 151.0 million tonnes, consumption at 126.5 million tonnes, trade at 25.0 million tonnes, and ending stocks at 44.5 million tonnes.  End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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