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Informist, Friday, Jul. 11, 2025

By J. Navya Sruthi

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold and silver were trading in the green Friday on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India, taking cues from those on COMEX, due to increased safe-haven demand. During the day, silver prices on MCX rose to a fresh all-time high tracking gains in silver prices on COMEX, supported by rising trade tensions amid the US's tariff threats.

US President Donald Trump announced 35% tariff on Canadian imports, starting Aug. 1. The move may escalate global trade tensions, with Trump planning to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most other trading partners. Trump's decision comes days after he terminated trade negotiations with Canada, citing the latter's retaliation with its own tariffs against the US.

The September contract of SILVER on the MCX rose to an all-time high of INR 111,750 per kg, while the September contract on COMEX rose to a 14-year high of $38.48 per ounce. At 1806 IST, the most-active September silver contract on the MCX was up 2.3% at INR 111,652 per kg. The same-month contract on COMEX was up nearly 3% at $38.17 per ounce.

"Silver's recent breakout above $35 has reignited speculation that the semi-industrial metal may have further room to run (up) in the months ahead," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note. "The move is underpinned by a structural supply deficit dating back to 2019, with annual demand consistently outpacing supply--eroding above-ground stockpiles and tightening the market." Silver-backed exchange-traded funds added 2.12 million troy ounces of silver to their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net purchases to 59 million ounces, Nirmal Bang Commodity Research said in a note. 

Meanwhile, GOLD futures contracts extended gains following the Trump administration's threats to impose steep tariffs on trade partners, a potential escalation that undermines hopes for an end to the trade war, XS.com's Samer Hasn was quoted as saying by Dow Jones. "Markets have become somewhat desensitised to President Trump's recurring tariff threats, but concern is growing that (trade) deals may not be reached."

At 1806 IST, the most-active August gold contract on COMEX was up 1% at $3,359 per ounce. The most-active August gold contract on the MCX was up 1.03% at INR 97,673 per 10 grams.

Trump Wednesday also asked the US Federal Reserve to cut key interest rates by 300 basis points. "Our Fed rate is at least 3 (percentage) points too high. ‘Too late' is costing the US $360 billion per year in refinancing costs. No inflation, companies pouring into America, ‘the hottest country in the world!' Lower the rate!!!," Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. "Too late" is one of Trump's pejorative terms for Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

This has heightened speculation of a dovish nominee for Fed chair next year, when Powell's term comes to an end, raising longer-term inflation concerns, Kotak Securities said in a note. Despite robust labour market data, with initial jobless claims falling for a fourth week and strong non-farm payrolls, markets continue to price in two rate cuts this year, the brokerage said.

Market participants are now waiting for a slew of economic data due from China next week for cues.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 96,024–INR 98,590 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,290.7–$3,393.6 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 109,133-INR 114,135 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $36.61-$38.53 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 85.80

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Nishant Maher

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