Downward Trend
Global coffee prices plunge 11.8% on month in Jun on surplus supply view
This story was originally published at 13:37 IST on 8 July 2025
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NEW DELHI – Global coffee prices plunged 11.8% in June to 295.06 cents per pound largely due to projections of a surplus supply, as per the International Coffee Organization's composite indicator of prices. "This is the first time since December 2024 that prices have fallen below the 300 cents per pound mark," the organisation said in a report.
The composite indicator followed a downward trend throughout June, fluctuating between 267.02 cents a pound and 317.41 cents, with a median value of 303.02 cents a pound, the report said. In early June, the US Department of Agriculture projected a 9.32-million-bag (1 bag = 60 kilgram) global surplus for the 2025-26 coffee year, following a 7.88-million-bag surplus in 2024-25.
Prices across all coffee varieties fell in June. Colombian Milds dropped 9.0% on month to 360.08 cents per pound, Other Milds by 8.7% to 363.16 cents per pound, and Brazilian Naturals by 10.9% to 338.53 cents. Robustas saw the steepest decline, falling 17.5% to 196.21 cents per pound--the first time since January 2024 that Robustas fell below the 200-cent mark, the report said.
The London Intercontinental Commodity Exchange market plunged 18.4% in June to 183.21 cents per pound, while the New York Intercontinental Commodity Exchange market fell 10.5% to 329.56 cents. The arbitrage between the two markets widened further by 1.9% to 146.35 cents per pound.
Despite a brief rally on Jun. 23 after reports of frost in Brazil's key growing regions, prices fell as sentiment quickly reversed with updated weather forecasts easing supply concerns, the report said.
Green bean exports in May totalled 11.2 million bags, up 3.5% on year. Exports of Other Milds rose 4.2% to 2.65 million bags, the report said. Robustas surged 20.1% to 4.31 million bags, driven by Vietnam's 87.3% jump in shipments. However, Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals exports declined 3.0% to 960,000 bags and 11.2% to 3.29 million bags, respectively.
Among regions, Asia and Oceania led with a 48.9% rise in total coffee exports to 4.11 million bags in May. Africa followed with a 33.3% jump to 2.33 million bags, while South America exports slumped 25.7% 4.08 million bags, mainly due to a sharp decline in Brazil's shipments.
Soluble coffee exports rose 15.4% in May to 1.33 million bags, with Brazil remaining the top exporter. Roasted bean shipments also climbed, up 46.8% on year to 120,000 bags. End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Afra Abubacker
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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