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Informist, Friday, Jun. 20, 2025

By Pallavi Singhal

NEW DELHI – Futures contracts of gold fell on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India, tracking a fall in contracts on the COMEX amid uncertainty over Washington's stance on military intervention in the ongoing West Asian conflict. The White House announced on Thursday that President Donald Trump will decide within the next two weeks whether the US will intervene in the Iranian-Israeli conflict.

A slight de-escalation in geopolitical tensions has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, analysts at Kotak Securities said in a report. Concurrently, a Federal Reserve inflation warning has diminished the likelihood of multiple rate cuts this year, they said. "Fresh Fed forecasts also indicate weaker growth, higher inflation, and lower employment in 2025," the note further said. Lower interest rates boost the appeal of the non-interest-bearing yellow metal to investors.

At 1626 IST, the most-active August GOLD contract on the COMEX was down 1% at $3,371.8 per ounce. The most-active August gold contract on the MCX was down 0.5% to INR 98,811 per 10 grams.

However, the downside may be limited if geopolitical tensions remain high, with the Israel-Iran conflict entering its eighth day. Safe-haven demand may increase as Russia has issued a stark warning against potential US military involvement in Iran, describing it as an "extremely dangerous step" with "unpredictable negative consequences", according to a Reuters report.

SILVER contracts fell on the MCX and COMEX, tracking the fall in gold and industrial metals. At 1631 IST, the most-active July silver contract on the MCX was down 0.8% at INR 106,535 per kilogram. The same-month contract on COMEX was 2.1% lower at $36.12 per ounce.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 97,147–INR 100,503 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,291.6–$3,420.9 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 103,768–INR 109,272 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $35.03–$37.22 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 86.58

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Saji George Titus

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