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Informist, Thursday, Jun. 19, 2025

By Pallavi Singhal

NEW DELHI – Futures contracts of gold fell on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India, tracking a fall in contracts on the COMEX as the dollar held firm following the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting. Lower interest rates boost the appeal of the non-interest-bearing yellow metal to investors.

At 1637 IST, the dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.2% at 98.87. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities such as gold expensive for holders of other currencies, denting demand.

At 1642 IST, the most-active August GOLD contract on the COMEX was down 0.5% at $3,390.4 per ounce. The most-active August gold contract on the MCX was down 0.1% to INR 99,405 per 10 grams. "New economic forecasts indicate expectations of weaker growth, higher inflation, and reduced employment this year (in the US). A significant rise in consumer prices could curtail monetary easing, adversely affecting gold," Kotak Securities said in a report.

However, the downside is likely to be limited as geopolitical tensions remain high, with the Israel-Iran conflict entering its seventh day. Safe-haven demand has also increased after Iran's Supreme Leader rejected President Donald Trump's call for unconditional surrender, Kaynat Chainwala, assistant vice president – commodity research at Kotak Securities, said in an emailed note.

Meanwhile, a World Gold Council survey showed that 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise, with 43% planning to increase their holdings. 

SILVER contracts fell on the MCX and COMEX, tracking the fall in gold and industrial metals. At 1650 IST, the most-active July silver contract on the MCX was down 1.2% at INR 107,242 per kg. The same-month contract on COMEX was 1.6% lower at $36.48 per ounce.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 97,588–INR 101,124 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,301–$3,440 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 104,768–INR 110,058 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $35.32–$37.42 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 86.72

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Saji George Titus

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