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Informist, Thursday, Jun. 19, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture, in its grain and feed update for India released Tuesday, has increased its production estimate for rice and maize for the crop year 2025-26 (Jul-Jun) owing to an expected above-normal southwest monsoon. The agency has also raised its estimate for the country's trade and consumption for rice, wheat, and maize.

 

The production outlook for India's largest crop, rice, in the upcoming year has been raised to 150.0 million tonnes from 143.0 million tonnes pegged earlier. In its third advance estimate, India's government has pegged rice output for 2024-25 at 149.1 million tonnes.

 

The early onset and expected above-normal and well-dispersed southwest monsoon rainfall during Jun-Sept is likely to support higher planting and yields, the report said. "Agriculture experts report farmers prefer rice over other competing crops under sufficient rains as rice can withstand standing water/higher soil moisture compared to other competing crops," the Foreign Agricultural Service said in its report. The residual water from the monsoon will also support rabi and summer rice on expected higher ground and reservoir irrigation water availability, it added.

 

The India Meteorological Department, in its second-stage long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon, has predicted Jun-Sept rainfall this year at 106% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 4%. The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, consisting of most of the rain-fed agricultural areas in the country, is most likely to be above normal. 

 

According to the USDA agency's report, the government had procured 51.8 million tonnes of rice as of Jun. 1, which is 4.4% higher than the quantity procured in the same period last year. The agency expects the government's rice purchases for the kharif marketing year 2024-25 (Oct-Sept) to be around 55.0 million tonnes, well above the government's annual requirement of 40.5 million tonnes for welfare programmes. In the previous kharif marketing season, the government had procured 52.5 million tonnes of rice.

 

According to the report, India's rice consumption for the kharif marketing year 2025-26 is likely to be higher at 126.0 million tonnes, compared with 124.0 million tonnes in 2024-25. This is because of higher offtake for human consumption and industrial use as the government offloads excess rice stocks in the domestic market and for ethanol manufacturers. The agency sees exports of rice for 2025-26 at a record 25.0 million tonnes, against 24.5 million tonnes in the current kharif marketing year, as the government may not be able to offload stocks in the domestic market owing to abundant domestic supplies and weak prices.

 

MAIZE

The USDA has kept India's maize output estimate for the crop year 2025-26 unchanged at 42.0 million tonnes despite the acreage for the crop likely to be higher than expected on the favourable monsoon. Expected sufficient rains in Jun-Jul and expected above-normal monsoon rains will ensure timely planting of kharif corn and sufficient soil moisture for rabi or summer corn, the report said. "However, abnormally heavy rains and floods in low-lying areas can adversely affect kharif corn planting and harvest forecast," as per the report.

 

In the kharif marketing year 2024-25, maize consumption for feed, seed, and industrial use has been raised to 18 million tonnes, from 15 million tonnes in 2023-24, mainly on account of strong corn offtake by ethanol producers. Assuming the existing ethanol pricing policy will continue, corn offtake by ethanol producers is likely to continue to grow in the upcoming kharif marketing year. The agency has raised feed, seed, and consumption estimate to 19.0 million tonnes in 2025-26.

 

"Forecast feed consumption is adjusted slightly lower on expected stagnant offtake by the poultry sector due to replacement of corn by other cheaper grains, including broken rice," as per the Foreign Agricultural Service report. The agency expects feed and residual consumption of maize to be 24.5 million tonnes, with overall consumption at 43.5 million tonnes.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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