More Stories

Informist, Friday, Jun. 13, 2025

 

NEW DELHI –  The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its estimate for global wheat supply in the 2025-26 marketing year to 1,072.6 million tonnes, down 1.2 million tonnes from its projection last month. The cut in the estimate is primarily due to lower beginning stocks for Russia, which are likely to offset higher production in the European Union and India, the department said in its June report.

 

The estimate for wheat output in the European Union was raised to 136.6 million tonnes due to improved conditions in Spain compared to last year. India's production estimate was raised to a record 117.5 million tonnes based on the government's third advance estimates. "This month's 2025-26 global wheat outlook is for reduced supplies, higher consumption and trade, and lower ending stocks," USDA said. 

 

On the demand side, USDA has increased the global consumption estimate to 809.8 million tonnes, up 1.8 million tonnes from the May projection. Higher food, seed, and industrial use for Nigeria, Sudan, and India is seen driving consumption growth, it added. 

 

On the back of increased wheat export forecasts for the US and the European Union, global wheat exports in 2025-26 are now estimated at 214.3 million tonnes, higher than 213.0 million tonnes projected last month, the report said. The wheat ending projection was lowered by 3.0 million tonnes to 262.8 million tonnes due to reductions for Russia, the US, Iraq, and Turkey.

 

RICE

In its June report, USDA has scaled up its estimates for rice supply, consumption, trade, and ending stocks for 2025-26. The rice production forecast was raised by 5.1 million tonnes to 728.9 million tonnes, mainly on higher beginning stocks and production for India. "Beginning stocks for India are raised on current stocks levels and a 3.0-million-tonne production increase for the 2024-25 crop to 150.0 million tonnes on the government's third advanced estimate," the report said. 

 

India's 2025-26 production estimate was raised by 3.0 million tonnes to 151.0 million tonnes due to an early arrival of the southwest monsoon, abundant precipitation so far, and the government's higher minimum support price for farmers, USDA said. 

 

The forecast for global rice trade was raised by 900,000 tonnes to 61.7 million tonnes, primarily due to higher exports by India. The projection for global ending stocks was raised by 2.8 million tonnes to 187.8 million tonnes, mostly on account of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.  End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.