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Informist, Friday, Jun. 13, 2025

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has cut its global cotton production forecast for the 2025-26 season (Oct-Sept) to 116.99 million bales from 117.81 million bales projected last month. According to the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the global production estimate has been lowered by over 800,000 bales. While China's production estimate was raised by 1 million bales, this increase was more than offset by downward revisions for India, the US, and Pakistan.

Total global supply of cotton is seen at 194.28 million bales, against 196.21 million bales projected the previous month, the report said. Beginning stocks are seen at 77.29 million bales, down from 78.40 million bales the previous month. The estimate for beginning stocks for 2025-26 is down over 1.1 million bales, largely reflecting a drop of 1 million bales in India's 2024-25 crop, according to the report. One bale equals 217.72 kilograms.

The forecast for global cotton consumption in 2025-26 has been reduced by over 300,000 bales, with an increase for Egypt more than offset by declines for India, Turkey, and Bangladesh, along with small changes elsewhere. The June forecast now projects global consumption at 117.76 million bales, down from 118.08 million bales estimated in May. Trade revisions are mostly offsetting, with global exports reduced by 40,000 bales.

Global ending stocks for 2025-26 are now pegged at 76.80 million bales, nearly 1.6 million bales lower than the previous forecast. The decline reflects lower beginning stocks and a fall in production, which outweighs the drop in consumption, the department said.

China's 2025-26 cotton production is now pegged at 30 million bales, up from 29 million bales seen in May. Brazil's output forecast remains unchanged at 18.25 million bales, while India's production forecast has been lowered to 23.50 million bales from 24.50 million projected in May, the report said.

The global cotton import estimate for 2025-26 was unchanged from the previous month at 44.82 million bales, the department said.  End

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

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