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Informist, Thursday, May 29, 2025

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – Agriculture experts are divided on the outlook for tur crop in the upcoming kharif season 2025-26 (Jul-Jun). While some expect acreage and production to rise from a year ago, others see them falling.

 

Tur is the largest pulse grown during the kharif season, in terms of acreage and production. In 2024-25, the area sown under tur rose to 4.3 million hectares from 4.1 million hectares a year ago, according to data from the agriculture ministry. Tur output in 2024-25 is pegged at 3.6 million tonnes, up from 3.4 million tonnes a year earlier, according to the agriculture ministry's third advance estimates on food grain production.

 

Some experts said both acreage and the output of tur are likely to increase in the kharif season due to the hike in the minimum support price, forecast of an above-normal southwest monsoon, and the availability of better seed varieties.

 

On Wednesday, the government hiked the minimum support price of tur by INR 450 per 100 kg to INR 8,000 per 100 kg. The hike is a good incentive for farmers to grow more of the pulse, Satish Upadhyay, secretary of the India Pulses and Grains Association, said.  

 

Reports of a good southwest monsoon are also increasing the prospects of a rise in tur production, he said. The India Meteorological Department has forecast Jun-Sep rainfall this year at 106% of the long-period average.

 

Farmers are also investing in better seed varieties, which could improve the yield of tur in the upcoming season, thus increasing production. "Many farmers in Maharashtra are opting for the charu variety of tur, which has a better yield than the maruti and pink varieties," Upadhyay said. "In my conversations with various farmers and seed companies, I have come to know that the demand for tur seeds is quite strong currently."

 

Upadhyay sees tur output in 2025-26 in the range of 3.5-4.0 million tonnes, though he said it is still too early. Kharif sowing usually begins by mid-June across the country. Even in Karnataka, where sowing usually begins earlier than in the rest of India, farmers are waiting for the skies to clear up after incessant rains over the past two weeks due to the onset of the southwest monsoon, he said.

 

Ankit Kedia, a trader from Akola in Maharashtra, expects tur acreage and production to remain more or less the same in the upcoming season. "There are no exciting incentives for farmers to want to increase the acreage, but the drawbacks are also not substantial enough for them to stop growing tur," he said. 

 

However, some market participants see a fall in both acreage and the output of tur due to the availability of cheap imports, high domestic supply, and better profitability in other crops. The area sown under tur is likely to fall as farmers will opt to grow crops such as maize and sugarcane, according to Rahul Chauhan, director of IGrain India. "Profitability in both crops is much better than that of tur," he said.

 

The country's consumption of maize has increased, driven by demand across the poultry and cattle feed sector, as well as rising needs for starch production and ethanol manufacturing for fuel blending. The price stability of water-intensive sugarcane is also attractive to farmers in states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka, where above-normal rainfall is forecast.

 

The ample availability of cheap imports and high domestic supply is also hurting the prospects for tur acreage, a trader from Solapur in Maharashtra said. "Arrivals of the crop from the 2024-25 kharif season are yet to stop in spot markets, so why would farmers want to grow even more tur in the upcoming season?" he said.

 

India's imports of tur rose 65% on year to 1.2 million tonnes in Apr-Feb, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The landing cost of African tur is INR 5,500 per 100 kg, while that of tur from Myanmar is INR 6,000-INR 6,500 per 100 kg, making them much cheaper than domestic tur. African countries and Myanmar are some of the biggest exporters of tur to India. 

 

The hike in the minimum support price of tur is unlikely to encourage farmers to sow more tur, some experts said. "They (the government) hiked the minimum support prices of other kharif crops as well, so the rise in tur support prices does not make any difference," Chauhan said.

 

Also, the current prices are sharply lower than a year ago. Prices of tur in the key spot market of Akola in Maharashtra were at INR 7,100-INR 7,125 per 100 kg on Thursday, down about 45% from a year ago.

 

Upadhyay also pointed out the uncertainty in the feasibility of raising the minimum support prices. "While the hike will encourage farmers to grow more tur this year, I do not see another rise in 2026-27, as I see it (the hike) more as a short-term solution," he said.

 

The rise in the support price of tur will inevitably hit the end consumer and will no longer be affordable for the average person, Upadhyay said. "In my opinion, the government should have announced incentives for farmers over and above the support price, rather than hiking it, which would work both for the farmers and consumers," he said.

 

Chauhan expects tur acreage to fall to 4.0 million hectares from 4.3 million hectares in 2024-25, though he also said it is too early to make firm projections as the monsoon is yet to play out.  End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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