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Informist, Tuesday, May 13, 2025

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has forecast global cotton production in 2025-26 (Oct-Sept) at 117.81 million bales, down from 121.07 million bales the previous year. Yet, global supply of cotton is likely to rise about 1.5% from 2024-25, as the increase in opening stocks exceeds the decline in production, the report said. Beginning stocks for the year are seen at 78.40 million bales. One bale equals 217.72 kilograms.

Global consumption in 2025-26 is forecast to rise 1.2% to 118.08 million bales as an increase in Bangladesh, India, Turkey, and Vietnam will more than offset a 500,000-bale decline in China, and smaller changes elsewhere. Global trade is projected over 5% higher at 44.83 million bales as both the US and Brazil increase exports by over 1 million bales. Ending stocks for 2025-26 are essentially unchanged from 2024-25 at 78.38 million bales, according to the department. The projected season-average price for 2025-26 is 62 cents per pound, the report said.

Meanwhile, in the 2024-25 (Oct-Sept) global balance sheet, production, consumption, and trade are revised upwards from their April forecasts, with beginning stocks virtually unchanged and ending stocks revised downward. The US Department of Agriculture has raised its global cotton production estimate for 2024-25 to 121.07 million bales from 120.89 million bales last month. "Because of excellent early harvest yields, Australia's projected crop is raised 200,000 bales, accounting for much of the increase in production," the department said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for May. 

In 2024-25, production in China is pegged at 32 million bales, unchanged from the previous estimate but up from 31.75 million bales forecast in March. According to the report, production estimates for Brazil and India remain steady at 17 million bales and 25 million bales, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Cotton Association of India lowered its estimate for domestic cotton production in 2024-25 (Oct-Sept) by 400,000 bales to 29.13 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg) in March. In February, it had lowered its estimate of the country's cotton production to 29.50 million bales.

The USDA estimate for global ending stocks has been reduced by 450,000 bales to 78.40 million bales. Global cotton consumption has been estimated at 116.68 million bales, up from 116.02 million bales predicted last month.

The global cotton import estimate for 2024-25 (Oct-Sept) has been raised to 42.48 million bales from 42.36 million bales last month. Estimates for imports by Pakistan and Vietnam were raised by 300,000 bales, while those by China were cut by 500,000 bales.  End

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Nishant Maher

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