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Informist, Friday, May 9, 2025

 

By Pallavi Singhal

 

NEW DELHI –  The government's foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for 2025-26 (Jul-Jun) is overly conservative, failing to account for the sector's potential growth and existing momentum, experts said. The government has projected the foodgrain output to rise 4% in the next crop year from the target of 341.55 million tonnes for 2024-25.

 

According to the second advance estimate, the food grain output was 330.92 million tonnes in 2024-25. However, this does not include the summer crops.

 

The government has set the kharif foodgrain production target at 168.88 million tonnes and rabi at 185.76 million tonnes. "The target for kharif is only up 1.5% on year, which seems too modest a number to me. The government can surely do better," agriculture expert S.K. Sood told Informist.   

 

According to Sood, maize production increase in kharif, targeted at 1.2 million tonnes, could easily reach 2.8 million tonnes. "I see it rising on the back of incentives in terms of pricing when it comes to ethanol," he said.

The government is targeting maize kharif output to rise to 26 million tonnes, from last year's 24.8 million tonnes.

 

For the full year, the government sees maize production rising to 42.68 million tonnes from 37.25 million tonnes last year. The procurement price of ethanol produced from maize is currently Rs 71.86 per litre.

 

Rice crop, primarily grown during the kharif season, is expected to rise by 11 million tonnes to 147.35 million tonnes. The government expects this rise to come on the back of the recently released two genome-edited rice varieties. However, according to experts, "while it will take a few cycles of planting for the seed variety to reach all corners of the country, the government can get considerable results this year itself if it pushes for it," said agriculture economist Deepak Pareek.

 

Furthermore, an assured hike in the minimum support prices, incentives and bonuses from state governments, as well as high government procurement, have been pushing farmers to sow more and more rice, he said. 

 

Experts also doubted the government's tur production target of 3.7 million tonnes, considering the previous year's output was 3.5 million tonnes, calling it a marginal increase that falls short of the country's actual requirements.

 

"The country's consumption of the pulse stands at about 4.2 million tonnes. At a time when the government has launched schemes such as the pulses mission, it should take all steps necessary to increase production to consumption levels. The country cannot go on importing pulses perennially," Sood said. To achieve self-sufficiency in pulses, the government launched a Mission for 'Atma Nirbharta in Pulses', focusing on increasing the production of tur, urad, and masur.

 

Experts, however, said the government's aim of growing 467 million tonnes of sugarcane in 2025-26 was unfeasible. "The country's (sugarcane) production in crop year 2023-24 was about 453 million tonnes. It fell to 435 million tonnes in 2024-25 as heavy rains destroyed crops in Karnataka and Maharashtra. Now the government expects it to rise up to 467 million tonnes, which is unfeasible. I see it rising back to a maximum of 450 million tonnes," Sood said.

 

The prediction of a higher-than-normal monsoon in 2025 is also instilling hope of a higher crop output. The India Meteorological Department has forecast an above normal southwest monsoon rainfall this year as neutral El Nino conditions are likely to prevail throughout the season. According to the weather bureau, Jun-Sept rainfall is likely to be 105% of the long-period average.

 

Following are the details of the target for 2025-26, compared with targets and achievements for 2024-25, in million tonnes:

 

 

Crop	Target 2024-25	Achievement 2024-25	Target 2025-26
Rice	136.30	136.44	147.35
Wheat	115.00	115.43	117.40
Maize	40.00	37.25	42.68
Coarse grains	41.10	39.20	44.73
Jowar	4.63	5.27	5.44
Bajra	11.15	9.49	10.97
Tur	4.50	3.51	3.70
Chana	13.65	11.54	12.01
Urad	3.05	1.80	2.29
Moong	4.25	1.61	3.65
Total pulses	29.90	23.02	26.47
Total oilseeds	44.75	41.67	44.75
Sugarcane	470.00	435.08	467.00
Cotton	35.00	29.43	33.90
Jute and Mesta	10.50	8.63	9.93
Total foodgrain	341.55	330.92	354.64

 

End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

 

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