More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 30, 2025

 

By J. Navya Sruthi

 

MUMBAI – After a decline for more than three months, prices of non-basmati rice varieties are likely to recover as demand for the grain increases in both domestic and overseas markets, market participants said. A drop in stocks at ports will further support prices, though ample stocks with the government are likely to restrict the rise.  

 

Rice prices have been down due to high production and low export demand, said B.V. Krishna Rao, president of The Rice Exporters Association. He added that the government's move to do away with all curbs on rice exports had led to lower prices in both global and domestic markets. After the government's announcement of lifting the ban on exports of broken rice on Mar. 7, prices of rice from Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan saw a steep fall. 

 

Usually, prices of rice rise during the summer as rice mills shut operations due to high temperatures across the country. This year, however, prices of only the basmati rice variety increased last week, and ample stocks of non-basmati rice with both the government and market participants has prevented an overall rebound in prices. 

 

Last week, prices of basmati rice rose by INR 200-INR 300 per 100 kg due to low stocks in the market as rice boilers were shut. Unlike basmati rice, non-basmati rice varieties are grown in both kharif and rabi seasons. Some regions in southern India grow paddy thrice a year, which has led to excess supply and prevented a rise in prices of non-basmati rice varieties in domestic markets.

 

However, traders and market participants expect prices to rebound as demand has picked up in global markets. This is likely to lead to an outflow of stocks at ports, supporting prices.

 

"Till a week ago, Thailand rice prices (Hom Mali variety) at free-on-board were as low as $419 per tonne as there was too much supply and no demand. But in a weak, prices have risen by nearly 4% to $435 per tonne as demand had picked up at low rates," said Naveen Kumar, director of Viking Impex. Now, prices are in uptrend as there is demand, he said.

 

Data from the Vietnam Food Association showed the export price of the 25% broken rice variety from Thailand was $384 per tonne on Tuesday, up from $373 per tonne last week and $381 per tonne in March.

 

Tracking gains in Thailand, a rebound in Indian rice prices is "very likely", Kumar said. "In the next three months, rice stocks at ports will start decreasing as there is demand for the grain. So these factors may likely lead to a 2% rise in Indian rice prices in the next one month."

 

The price of the 25% broken rice variety from India was $370 per tonne on Tuesday, up from $365 per tonne last week, though lower than $375 per tonne in March, according to data from the association. The price of the same variety from Vietnam was $372 per tonne as of Tuesday, slightly higher than $371 per tonne last week, but down compared to $374 per tonne in March.

 

Rao said there could be a rise of 1-2% in prices of non-basmati rice in both domestic and international markets owing to demand from Indonesia and the Philippines. As of Wednesday, prices of kolam rice in the Vashi market were steady at INR 5,200–INR 5,400 per 100 kg and those of sona masoori rice, a premium non-basmati rice variety, were steady at INR 5,000 per 100 kg. 

 

ABUNDANT STOCKS

The stock of rice with the government is five times the actual demand, Kumar said, adding that this is likely to prevent a massive upside in prices. The situation is no better in spot markets. In fact, the makets of Kota and Baran in Rajasthan have been facing a space crunch due to ample stocks of rice and soybean, as traders did not sell the stock because of low prices in spot markets. 

 

Rice stocks with Food Corp. of India were up 26.5% on year at 38.2 million tonnes as of Apr. 1. The stocks were up nearly 4% from 36.8 million tonnes a month ago. The Chhattisgarh government is selling the surplus rice in the open market as it had record procurement of paddy in the kharif marketing year 2024-25 (Oct-Sept). The state government has decided to auction 3.5 million tonnes of rice. 

 

The US Department of Agriculture has estimated global rice production in 2024-25 at 715.3 million tonnes, owing to higher production in India, according to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for April. According to the Indian government's second advance estimate, the country's rice output in the kharif season is pegged at 120.7 million tonnes compared to 111.5 million tonnes the previous year, and the rabi crop is seen at 15.8 million tonnes compared to 12.4 million tonnes.  End

 

US$1 = INR 84.49

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.