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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 30, 2025

 

By Gowri Lakshmi

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a five-month closing high Thursday, posting the biggest single-day gain in over two years, owing to continuous foreign fund inflows into Indian financial markets, dealers said. Traders also trimmed their long dollar positions after multiple stop-losses were triggered during the day, which pushed the rupee further higher, dealers said.

 

After rising to a high of 84.4625 a dollar, the Indian unit settled at 84.4875 against the greenback, sharply higher from its close of 85.2625 a dollar Tuesday. The rupee strengthened 0.9% against the greenback and rose 75 paise from its previous close, logging the biggest intraday gain since Nov. 29, 2022. 

 

"Initially they (Reserve Bank of India) tried to cap the gains when it (rupee) was around 84.90 levels," a currency trader at a state-owned bank said. "But the continuous inflows and some exporter selling triggered several stop-losses. Even importers did not come aggressively hoping for a further rise (of the rupee)." 

 

Other Asian currencies also traded sharply higher against the greenback Thursday. Other Asian currencies rose 0.2-0.9% against the US unit. The Indonesian rupiah was the best performing currency in the region, followed by the Indian rupee and the South Korean won.

 

The rupee started the day sharply higher against the dollar at 85.1600 a dollar as foreign portfolio investors sold the greenback to invest in the domestic stock market and government bond market, dealers said. So far in April, foreign portfolio investors have net bought shares worth $974.43 million.

 

Early Wednesday, Asian currencies rose due to improved investor sentiment after Washington decided to exempt US-made automobiles from the aggressive tariffs if they had at least 85% locally procured materials, which suggested an easing stance of US President Donald Trump on the superfluous tariff policies announced earlier. This also supported the Indian currency, dealers said. 

 

Noting the rise of the rupee, a few importers purchased dollars in early trade to meet their month-end payment obligations, dealers said. Oil marketing companies also actively purchased dollars to take advantage of the fall in crude oil prices, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the June Brent crude contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $63.66 per barrel, down from $64.25 per barrel Tuesday and sharply down from $65.86 per barrel Monday. 

 

Meanwhile, overseas investors continuously sold dollars, which pushed the rupee past 84.95 a dollar, a level above which there were multiple stop-losses waiting to be triggered. Dealers speculated that some public-sector banks purchased dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, at around 84.92 a dollar to limit an even sharper rise of the rupee.

 

However, state-owned banks' dollar purchases could not limit further rise in the rupee due to large quantum of foreign fund inflows. Dealers estimated that overseas investors may have sold anywhere between $500 million-$2 billion Thursday, which boosted the rupee. "Ideally, with the ongoing Indo-Pakistan tension, the rupee should depreciate, but given the amount of flows into the market, the rupee is rather strengthening," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. "Now I guess the rupee will likely hold these levels for couple of weeks."

 

Dollar sales by a few foreign banks, including a UK-based one, pushed the rupee to 84.4625 a dollar, its highest level in 2025. However, a further rise of the rupee was capped as a few importers rushed to take advantage of lucrative dollar/rupee levels. But, dealers noted that most importers were not "aggressive" in purchasing the greenback, despite a surge in the rupee. This was because they were waiting for the rupee to rise further before buying dollars in large quantum, dealers said.

 

The volume in the currency market was better than usual due to higher demand for dollars on month-end payment requirement of importers, dealers said. The dollar index remained steady Wednesday. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.43, slightly up from 99.19 Tuesday and 98.94 Monday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	84.4875	85.1600	84.4625	85.1600	85.2625
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	194.21	194.71	195.79	192.67	194.97

 

FORWARDS

The one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium ended at an over three-week high Wednesday due to a fall in the benchmark US Treasury yield, dealers said. Overall volume in the market was lower due to a truncated week, they said. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points in early European trade from Tuesday's close of 4.19%, which was already 4 basis points lower from Monday. 

 

In the past one week, the premium on the one-year dollar/rupee forward contract has remained in the upward trajectory, rising continuously from the Apr. 23 low of 1.99%. Simultaneously, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen in the past week,to 4.16% in the European trade Wednesday from from 4.41% on Apr. 22. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium settled at 2.30%, up from 2.27% Tuesday and 2.29% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 194.21 paise, similar to Tuesday, but slightly down from 195.00 Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

The currency market is shut Thursday on account of Maharashtra Day. On Friday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of the Chinese yuan and the dollar index, dealers said. Market participants will closely watch any developments in the India-Pakistan military tension. Any deterioration in the relations of both the countries is likely to weigh on the Indian currency, dealers said. Traders will also look out for further clarity on the US tariff policies. 

 

Dealers expect foreign fund inflows to continue, which will likely support the rupee. However, they expect the rise of the rupee to be limited as importers may purchase dollars given the attractive dollar/rupee levels. Dealers expect volume in the currency market to pick up from next week.

 

On Friday, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 84.40-85.10 against the dollar, with dealers pegging strong technical resistance at 84.40 a dollar. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen down 0.4% as Japan's factory output declines

 

	AT 1453 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3371	1.3414	1.3363	1.3408
EUR/USD	1.1372	1.1400	1.1355	1.1381
NZD/USD	0.5923	0.5950	0.5917	0.5930
AUD/USD	0.6395	0.6418	0.6379	0.6382
USD/JPY	142.9700	142.9820	142.1680	142.3000
USD/CAD	1.3836	1.3846	1.3818	1.3827
EUR/JPY	162.5100	162.5930	161.7240	161.9410
CHF/USD	1.2120	1.2155	1.2102	1.2120
EUR/CHF	0.9381	0.9395	0.9362	0.9383

 

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen fell 0.4% against the greenback Wednesday after data published earlier in the day showed that the country's factory output fell more than expected in March as Japan's motor vehicles industry was hit by US tariffs. Japan's industrial output fell 1.1% last month, against the estimate of a 0.4?ll in a Reuters poll of analysts. Other data showed Japanese retail sales inched up 3.1% on year in March, slightly lower than the market forecast of a 3.5% rise.

 

The euro was down 0.2?ter data from Germany, the largest economy in the European Union, recorded a decline in retail sales and import prices in March. German retail sales fell 0.2% from February while import prices rose 2.1%, against a 3.6% increase in February. However, Germany's GDP data showed the country's economy expanded by 0.2% in Jan-Mar, in line with market expectations, amid the ongoing tariff worries. 

 

The pound sterling was down 0.3?ter the UK's business sentiment fell by 10 points to its lowest level in three months, as employers worried about the implications of US tariffs on the country's economy. The Lloyds Bank Business Barometer measure of confidence among companies declined to 39% in April, the lowest level since January. The survey's gauge of economic optimism also fell by 13 points to 28%. 

 

The Australian dollar was up 0.1%. Australia's core inflation slowed to a three-year low in the March quarter, data published earlier in the day showed. The headline CPI rose 0.9% in March, higher than market estimates of a 0.8% rise. Annual CPI inflation stood steady at 2.4%.

 

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.1% against the greenback after China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.4 in April from 51.2 in March. China's official Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 49.0 in April, down from 50.5 last month. Any change in the Chinese economy directly impacts the New Zealand currency due to the close trade relations between the two countries.

 

The dollar index rose marginally during European trade. The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey, published Tuesday, showed job openings in the US fell by 288,000 to 7.19 million. However, layoffs declined 222,000 to 1.56 million, suggesting a strong labour market despite the ongoing tariff worries and the trade standoff with China.

 

At 1451 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar, against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.39, slightly up from 99.19 Tuesday. On Monday, the index was at 99.94. The Canadian dollar traded 0.1% lower against the greenback while the Swiss franc fell 0.3%.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

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India Rupee: One-year premium at over 3-week high due to fall in US yields

 

	AT 1412 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	84.7550	85.1600	84.6200	85.1600	85.2625
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	194.96	194.71	195.79	192.67	194.97

 

MUMBAI – The one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium hit an over three-week high Wednesday due to a fall in the benchmark US Treasury yield, dealers said. Overall volume in the market was lower due to a truncated week, they said. Thursday is a holiday on account of Maharashtra Day.

 

"While the movement is not that much, some paying came in, largely as US yields have also come down," a dealer with a state-owned bank said. "And I think it will rise for now till about 2.40% (in the coming days)." Some banks sold forward dollars, noting a relatively higher premium, which limited its rise, dealers said.

 

The one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium was at 2.31% Wednesday, the highest level since Apr. 8. A fall in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield provided a boost to forward premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points in early European trade from Tuesday's close of 4.19%, which was already 4 basis points lower from Monday.

 

The forward market was Wednesday calmer than the spot market, where the rupee surged after multiple stop losses were triggered on long dollar bets, dealers said. Stop losses were triggered above 84.95 a dollar, a level above which dealers did not think the rupee would rise. However, foreign fund inflows into domestic markets provided a boost to the Indian currency, dealers said. 

 

"On a day when the spot (price) has moved so much, I did not really look at forwards, and people are also focussing more on spot today," a dealer with another state-owned bank said. Dealers at a few other banks also echoed his views.

 

In the past one week, the premium on the one-year dollar/rupee forward contract has remained on the upward trajectory, rising continuously from the Apr. 23 low of 1.99%. Simultaneously, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen in the past week, from 4.41% on Apr. 22 to 4.16% in early European trade Wednesday. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

At 1410 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.30%, up from 2.27% Tuesday and 2.29% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 194.96 paise, almost same as 194.97 Tuesday and 195.00 Monday.  (Sourabh Kumar)

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India Rupee: Surges on FX flows into gilts; stop-losses on long dlr bets hit

 

	AT 1325 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	84.8175	85.1600	84.7675	85.1600	85.2625

 

MUMBAI – The rupee surged due to continuous foreign fund inflows into the government bond market and the domestic stock market, dealers said. A few dealers said the Reserve Bank of India did not intervene actively by selling large quantum of dollars to prevent the rupee from rising above 84.95 a dollar, a level above which there were multiple stop-losses waiting to be triggered.

 

Once the rupee rose above 84.94 a dollar, it quickly surged to touch an over four-month high of 84.7700 a dollar, as several stop-losses on long dollar bets were hit. The rupee has moved in a range of 40 paise so far in the day. 

 

"There are signficant flows coming into the market, but large part of it is towards the bond (G-Sec market)," a currency trader at a brokerage firm said. "Quite a bit of flows are because of the new 10-year bond auction." Dealers estimate the quantum of the foreign fund inflows into the government bond market between $500 million to $2 billion. The RBI had notified Monday about the sale of the new 10-year 2035 gilt worth INR 300 billion at the weekly gilt auction Friday. 

 

Noting the sharp rise of the rupee, importers purchased the greenback, which limited the further upward movement of the Indian currency, dealers said. However, dollar purchases by importers were not "aggressive", as they wanted to wait for the rupee to rise more before buying dollars in large quantums, dealers said.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 84.70 and 85.20 a dollar. Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian unit at 84.70 a dollar.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 30

 

MUMBAI – At 1126 IST, the rupee was at 85.0550 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 85.1600 a dollar, against the previous close of 85.2625. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	85.45	85.40	84.95	84.75
Private-sector bank	85.50	85.40	85.00	84.80
Private-sector bank	85.50	85.30	84.95	84.85

(Sourabh Kumar)

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 India Rupee: Sharply up on FX inflows; dollar buys by importers limit rise

 

	AT 0938 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	85.0875	85.1600	85.0550	85.1600	85.2625

 

MUMBAI - The rupee rose sharply against the dollar Wednesday owing to foreign fund inflows into the domestic stock market and the government bond market, dealers said. However, the rupee's rise was limited as importers purchased dollars to meet their month-end payment obligations, dealers said. Volume in the currency market was better than usual as banks bought dollars for month-end payment requirements. 

 

"I think the rupee will follow yesterday's (Tuesday's) session," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The rupee will rise sharply on FX (foreign exchange) flows and then importers will come to buy (dollars) on dips, capping the gains."

 

Foriegn fund inflows into Indian financial markets supported the rupee. So far in April, foreign portfolio investors have bought shares worth $974.43 million. A rise in other Asian currencies also supported the rupee, dealers said. Asian currencies rose between 0.1-0.5% in early trade as investor sentiment improved after the US decided to exempt US-made vehicles from tariffs if they had at least 85% local content, suggesting Trump's aggressive tariff policies were easing. 

 

However, the rise of the rupee was limited as oil marketing companies actively purchased dollars to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels and benefit from the fall in crude oil prices. Dealers expect crude oil prices to fall to as low as $60 per barrel on expectation of weaker demand amid an output hike anticipated in June.

 

Several memebers of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies have suggested accelarating oil output in June, Reuters reported citing sources. At 0938 IST, the June Brent crude contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $63.65 per barrel, down from $64.25 Tuesday and $65.86 per barrel Monday. 

 

The dollar index remained steady in early trade. At 0938 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies was 99.35, slightly up from 99.19 Tuesday and from 98.94 Monday.

 

During the day, the rupee is seen moving between 84.90 and 85.50 a dollar. Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian unit at 84.95 a dollar.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most units up; China yuan dn on weak factory output

 

MUMBAI - Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Wednesday due to improved investor sentiment after US President Donald Trump decided to ease import duties on automobile parts. However, the Chinese yuan fell 0.1% against the greenback in early trade after data published Wednesday showed a slowdown of China's factory activity in April.

 

The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.4 this month from 51.2 in March. China's official Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 49.0 in April, down from 50.5 last month. Chinese officials had earlier said their economy was well placed to absorb any adverse effect of US tariffs.

 

The dollar remained steady in early Asian trade. Data on Tuesday showed the US job openings in March fell by 288,000 to 7.19 million. However, layoffs declined 222,000 to 1.56 million, suggesting a strong labour market amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and trade standoff between the US and China.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was slightly up at 99.31 at 0919 IST from 99.19 Tuesday and 98.94 Monday. However, it has remained broadly lower from the last week. The Malaysian ringgit, the Indonesian rupiah, and Taiwan dollar, all rose 0.2% against the greenback. 

 

The South Korean won traded 0.2% higher against the greenback as the country's industrial output increased in March, logging a second consecutive month of growth in its factory output. South Korea's industrial production rose 0.9% last month. However, the country's retail sales, a key gauge of private spending, fell 0.3% in March. 

 

The Philippine peso was up 0.3% against the US currency after Philippines' exports rose by 5.9% on year in March, the third straight month of rise in exports. Further, producer prices in Philippines also rose by 0.6% on year last month. However, producer prices slowed in March after an upwardly revised 0.9% rise a month prior. 

 

The Thai baht remained steady against the greenback ahead of Bank of Thailand monetary policy decision outcome due later in the day. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee is widely anticipated to lower the benchmark one-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% for the second consecutive meeting this year. Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput Tuesday stressed on stability as he cautioned against a "storm" from rising worries over a global trade war. "We can't be complacent about stability," Suthiwartnarueput said. "Looking ahead, it's quite clear that a storm is coming from trade war. Even though the issue hasn't been fully settled and the impact is not clear, we can see that it's coming. The need to focus on stability is high."  (Gowri Lakshmi)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 30

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	85.50	84.90
Foreign bank	85.50	84.90
Foreign bank	85.40	85.00
Brokerage firm	85.80	84.90
Brokerage firm	85.60	84.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Sourabh Kumar and Gowri Lakshmi)

 

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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