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Informist, Monday, Apr. 21, 2025

 

MUMBAI - The International Grains Council has projected global food grain output at a record 2,373 million tonnes for 2025-26, up from the previous month's forecast of 2,368 million tonnes. The increase in the overall production is mainly on expectation of a bumper maize crop, the council said in its grain market report released Thursday. 

 

The council also raised its projection for global consumption in 2025-26 to 2,373 million tonnes from 2,367 million tonnes estimated in March, "predominantly on a revised industrial (ethanol) consumption profile for India." It has also raised the carryover stocks for 2025-26 by 2 million tonnes to 580 million tonnes.

 

The council has lowered its global grains production estimate for 2024-25 to 2,303 million tonnes, down 3 million tonnes from last month, due to modest adjustments for wheat and millet, it said. It has also cut the consumption outlook by 8 million tonnes to 2,328 million tonnes. The council lowered global consumption in April due to "downgraded estimate for wheat food use, mainly in India, and various reductions for feed, mostly maize."

 

It has also raised the estimate for trade in 2024-25 by 2 million tonnes to 418 million tonnes, because of larger than expected maize flows recently. However, the projection for closing stocks in 2024-25 is still at 580 million tonnes, the lowest in 10 years. 

 

RICE

World rice production is seen at 540 million tonnes, up from 538 million tonnes estimated in March, because of larger crops in the major exporters and China. The council also increased its estimate for 2025-26 rice carryover stocks by 2 million tonnes to 180 million tonnes.

 

"Global import demand is tentatively projected to advance to a record of almost 60 million tonne, shaped by the requirements of African and Asian buyers, with Indian shipments accounting for about 40% of all flows." The council expects rice shipments from India to exceed 23 million tonnes.

 

The council pegged 2024-25 global rice production at 537 million tonnes with consumption seen at 532 million tonnes. Trade for 2024-25 is seen at 58 million tonnes, steady from the previous year.

 

WHEAT  

The council has scaled down its 2025-26 wheat production estimate to 806 million tonnes from 807 million tonnes in March. However, the production estimate remains higher than 798 million seen for 2024-25. Consumption is seen higher at 814 million tonnes in 2025-26 compared to 813 million tonnes pegged in March. Carryover stocks for 2025-26 are seen at 260 million tonnes, up 1 million tonne from the previous month's estimate. 

 

MAIZE

The council projected maize production to rise to 1,274 million tonnes in 2025-26, from 1,269 million tonnes estimated in March. Trade is seen at 185 million tonnes in 2025-26, higher by 2 million tonnes from that forecast in March.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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