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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 17, 2025

By Shreya Shetty

MUMBAI – With an above-normal southwest monsoon predicted in Jun-Sept, experts and traders see an overall increase in food grain output in 2025-26 (Jul-Jun), helping to curb pulses imports. However, the extent of improvement in crop output will largely depend on the timeliness and distribution of rainfall, they said.

On Tuesday, the India Meteorological Department projected an above normal southwest monsoon rainfall this year as neutral El Nino conditions will prevail throughout the season. The weather bureau said the overall rainfall during Jun-Sept is likely to be 105% of the long-period average.

While the kharif and rabi food grain output in 2024-25 was 4.8% higher because of the above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall, experts said there is a good chance of an even higher output in the next season.

In 2024, actual rainfall over the country during the southwest monsoon was 8% above normal at 934.8 mm, data from the weather bureau showed. This has also improved the water level in key reservoirs in the country. As of Apr. 3, the water level in 161 key reservoirs in the country was 14% higher than a year ago and 18% higher than the normal storage for the previous 10 years.

India's food grain output this kharif season is estimated at a record 166.4 million tonnes, up 6.8% from 155.8 million tonnes in the previous year, according to the second advance estimate for 2024-25 (Jul-Jun).

The crop output will definitely be better than last year, but the exact numbers cannot be predicted, said Satish Upadhyay, secretary, India Pulses and Grains Association. "We also need to know whether the southwest monsoon will begin on time or late, and whether it will be patchy or regular," he said.

If the southwest monsoon does not begin by Jun. 15, the sowing of crops such as urad and moong will be delayed, affecting the crop cycle, Upadhyay said. "Additionally, if the rainfall is patchy, farmers may have to re-sow crops and start all over again," he said.

A delay in the onset of rainfall will give rise to panic-buying in spot markets across the country, Ankit Kedia, a trader from Akola, Maharashtra, said. "If the onset of the (southwest) monsoon is late, prices of pulses such as tur will rise as kharif sowing will be delayed," he said.

However, the country is getting used to the late commencement of the southwest monsoon, as farmers are more aware of global warming resulting in climate change, the analysts said.

"It's just that the monsoon should not be delayed too much, but a late rainfall is still rainfall," Upadhyay said. An above-normal rainfall outlook also ensures that water sources will be recharged, which augurs well for the rabi season, he said.

The country can expect to see a better kharif output in the coming crop year, with a likely increase in maize and tur acreage, said Deepak Pareek, founder of Global Grains and Pulses Council.

"According to the bureau's (IMD's) prediction, all the major-tur producing areas are set to get good rainfall during Jun-Sept," he said.  The highest probability of above-normal rainfall is seen over parts of Marathwada, central Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka, and Vidarbha regions in India, the weather department said. Maharashtra and Karnataka are among the top tur-producing states in the country.

Maize acreage has been increasing in every crop season due to the government's push for ethanol manufacturing for fuel blending, so it will keep increasing in the next crop year as well, Pareek said. 

The updated forecast for the southwest monsoon season will be released in the last week of May, the weather agency said.

A better crop output will also aid in reducing the amount of imports, especially of pulses, experts said. Pulses imports in Apr-Jan stood at 5.9 million tonnes, up 83.6% on year, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

The southwest monsoon in 2023 was affected by El Nino, which led to patchy rainfall across the country. This ultimately led to a fall in pulses output and increased overall food inflation, which prompted a rise in imports.

"Of course, imports will not stop immediately once the output rises, as we have a big population who needs to be fed, and domestic production cannot fulfil it completely," Upadhyay said. Imports are seen making up 24.6% of the country's annual consumption of pulses of 27 million tonnes, according to data from IGrain.

Imports are also needed as the government is looking into building a buffer stock, Upadyay added.  End

Edited by Saji George Titus

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