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Informist, Friday, Apr. 11, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has increased its estimate for global rice supply for 2024-25 by 3.1 million tonnes to 715.3 million tonnes, mainly on higher production in India, Indonesia, and Cambodia, the department said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for April.

 

The global body has raised its estimate for India's production by 2.0 million tonnes to a record 147.0 million tonnes on the back of the Indian government's second advanced estimates for kharif and rabi crops, and the expectation that the summer crop output will be similar to recent years. "This is the ninth consecutive year of higher rice production for India and is the first time India surpassed China in rice production, making India the leading global rice producer for 2024-25," the report said.

 

World rice consumption estimate for 2024-25 has been raised by 1.4 million tonnes to 532.1 million tonnes, mostly on increase in consumption in several sub-Saharan African countries, the global body said. It has also increased global trade estimates by 2.2 million tonnes to a record 60.6 million tonnes, mostly due to larger exports for India, which are pegged to hit a record 24.5 million tonnes.

 

Last month, the government had finally allowed the export of non-basmati broken rice, which were banned in September 2022 to control prices in the domestic market. With this, rice exports of all the varieties from India are allowed, pushing the country's exports to an all-time high.    

 

The US Department of Agriculture forecast world-ending stocks for 2024-25 at 183.24 million tonnes, higher than the March estimate of 181.51 million tonnes, mainly due to increases for Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.

 

WHEAT ESTIMATES

The global body has cut its estimate for global wheat supply in 2024-25 by 800,000 tonnes to 1.07 billion tonnes due to reduced production estimates for Saudi Arabia and the European Union. The global body has also reduced its estimate for the beginning stocks to 269.06 million tonnes from 269.50 million tonnes in April due to lower stock estimates for Uzbekistan and Israel.

 

The department has also cut its estimate for wheat consumption to 805.20 million tonnes from 806.65 million tonnes, mainly driven by lower food, seed, and industrial use for India and China. The global trade has been estimated at 206.8 million tonnes, down 1.3 million tonnes from March, mostly because of lower export forecasts for Russia, Australia, and the European Union. 

 

According to the report, global wheat exports for 2024-25 are seen at 206.82 million tonnes, compared to the previous month's estimate of 208.07 million tonnes. The global body has revised its estimates for wheat imports to 198.84 million tonnes from the earlier projected 202.70 million tonnes.

 

Ending stocks of wheat are estimated higher at 260.70 million tonnes compared to the earlier estimate of 260.08 million tonnes. This is because of higher stocks for India, Russia, the US, and the EU. However, global wheat stocks for 2024-25 are 3?low the previous year's estimate of 269.06 million tonnes and the lowest since 2015-16, the report said. The department has kept India's wheat output estimate for 2024-25 unchanged from the previous month at 113.29 million tonnes.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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