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Informist, Friday, Apr. 11, 2025

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has trimmed its estimate for global oilseed output in 2024-25 to 676.62 million tonnes from 679.37 million tonnes projected last month, it said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for April.

The output of oilseeds in countries excluding the US is now estimated at 548.14 million tonnes, down from 550.89 million tonnes seen last month. The production estimate for the US is unchanged at 128.48 million tonnes.

The global soybean production estimate has been lowered slightly to 420.58 million tonnes from 420.76 million tonnes. Though soybean production in Bolivia fell, most of the loss was offset by higher output in South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and the European Union, the department said.

Soybean production estimates for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay are unchanged at 169.00 million tonnes, 49.00 million tonnes, and 10.70 million tonnes, respectively.

Along with a slight fall in soybean production, the US Department of Agriculture has projected a slight rise in soybean exports, with an increase in crushing and a fall in ending stocks. Global soybean exports in 2024-25 are pegged at 182.12 million tonnes, up from 181.95 million tonnes estimated in March, the report said. "Exports are raised for Canada and Nigeria but lowered for Ukraine," the department said.  

Global soybean crushing is now pegged at 354.84 million tonnes, up from 352.84 million tonnes predicted in March due to a rise in crushing activities in Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the US. Crushing in Brazil is estimated at 57.00 million tonnes, up from 56.00 million tonnes. Ample global supply of soybean meal, lower prices of the oilseed, and a lower supply of alternative oilseed meals has led to increased use of soybean meal consumption globally, the department said.  

Soybean meal output in 2024-25 is now estimated higher at 278.63 million tonnes from 276.90 million tonnes in March. Soybean meal is a by-product of the extraction of soybean oil. 

Despite a rise in soybean crushing, the projection for global vegetable oil production has been lowered slightly to 228.08 million tonnes from 228.98 million tonnes due to lower palm oil production. The palm oil production estimate has been trimmed by 1.30 million tonnes to 78.20 million tonnes due to lower output in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, the department said.

Global soybean ending stocks estimate has been raised to 122.47 million tonnes from 121.41 million tonnes a month ago, mainly due to higher stocks in Brazil and the European Union, the department said. Meanwhile, global beginning stocks are estimated at 115.27 million tonnes, up from 112.55 million tonnes seen earlier due to a revision in the 2023-24 production numbers for Brazil. After a review of the 2024 disappearance data, Brazil's 2023-24 output estimate has been raised by 1.5 million tonnes to 154.5 million tonnes, the department said. 

Production of soybean meal in India in 2024-25 has been projected at 8.80 million tonnes, unchanged from the estimate last month. Production in 2023-24 has been estimated at 9.04 million tonnes. India is one of the largest importers of soy oil and an exporter of soybean meal. 

"The US season-average soybean price for 2024-25 is forecast unchanged at $9.95 per bushel. The soybean meal price is lowered $10 to $300 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 2 cents to 45 cents per pound," the department said.  End

US$1 = INR 86.06

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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