Taking a Downturn
Global coffee prices decline 1.8% on month in Mar amid increased uncertainty
This story was originally published at 15:43 IST on 7 April 2025
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NEW DELHI – Global coffee prices in March declined 1.8% from a month ago to 347.85 cents a pound, as per the International Coffee Organization's composite indicator of prices. The composite indicator fluctuated between 336.32 and 364.20 cents a pound during the month, with a median value of 347.69 cents a pound, the organisation said in a report.
"A combination of specific events, macro-economic occurrences, and geopolitical factors has ushered in a degree of negative uncertainty within the coffee market, bringing about a pocket of downturn within a long bull-run," the report said.
A possible downward adjustment in coffee prices, falling consumer confidence level in the US, and deteriorating household finances weighed on prices. Improved supplies and increased uncertainty amid tariff wars and weakening demand due to the possibility of a higher retail price of coffee also dragged prices, it said. The supply situation has improved with production in Colombia hitting a 29-year high in February, the report said.
The price of Colombian Milds coffee and Other Milds fell 1.4% and 1.3% from February to 404.97 and 404.02 cents a pound, respectively. Brazilian Naturals and Robustas declined 2.1?ch from February to 392.48 and 257.61 US cents a pound, respectively. The London Intercontinental Commodity Exchange market was the main driver of the decline, decreasing by 2.3%, whereas the New York ICE market shrank by 1.4% in March.
The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets further expanded 0.3% to 135.11 US cents per pound in March, the highest since February 2022, according to the report.
Global green beans exports in February rose 6.6% on year to 11.12 million bags (1 bag = 60 kg). "All four groups of coffee saw their exports go up in February, but most of the increase was due to the Colombian Milds and Robustas, with both experiencing double-digit growths," the report said. Data for exports come with a month's lag.
Exports of Colombian Milds increased by 12.5% on year in February to 1.24 million bags, making the seventh consecutive month of positive growth.
Green bean exports of the Robustas were up 10.7% on year to 4.71 million bags in February. "The main drivers of February's double-digit positive growth rate were Indonesia and Vietnam, whose exports increased by 170% and 22.8%, respectively," the report said.
Shipments of the Other Milds were up 0.9% on year in February to 1.86 million bags, the first positive growth rate in coffee year 2024-25 (Oct-Sep). Green bean exports of Brazilian Naturals increased by 2.5% on year in February to 3.32 million bags. Ethiopia and Vietnam were the two main drivers of the upturn, with their exports rising by 42.9% and 22.45%, respectively, it added.
Total exports of soluble coffee rose 21.5% on year to 1.05 million bags in February. Brazil was the largest exporter of soluble coffee in February.
Coffee exports from South America fell 6.9% on year to 4.58 million bags in February. Exports from Africa rose 20.6% to 1.33 million bags. Exports from Mexico and Central America rose 10.6% to 1.51 million bags in February, while exports from Asia and Oceania rose 21.7% to 4.81 million bags, the organisation said in its report.
Global coffee production in 2023-24 (Oct-Sep) is expected to have increased to 178 million bags, up from 168.2 million bags in the previous year, the report said. Consumption of coffee in 2023-24 is expected to have risen 2.2% on year to 177 million bags, which means the global coffee market is likely to have been left with a surplus of 1 million bags, as per the report. End
US$1 = INR 85.89
Reported by Afra Abubacker
Edited by Saji George Titus
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