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Informist, Friday, Mar. 21, 2025

MUMBAI – The International Grains Council has projected global food grain output at a record 2,368 million tonnes for 2025-26, up 2.7% from an upwardly revised 2,306 million tonnes in 2024-25. The increase in overall production is led by maize, wheat, and barley, the council said in its grain market report released Thursday.

The council also raised its projection for global consumption in 2025-26 to 2,367 million tonnes from 2,336 million tonnes in 2024-25. Despite the higher consumption, the council has increased its projection for carryover stocks to 578 million tonnes for 2025-26 from 577 million tonnes a year ago. "Despite a rise in consumption, carryover inventories are projected to edge higher, buoyed by an accumulation in the major exporters. Trade is expected to rebound, but remaining well below earlier peaks," the report said.

The council had earlier projected global food grain production in 2024-25 at 2,301 million tonnes. The upward revision is due to higher production of wheat and coarse grains in 2024-25. However, total grain production in 2024-25 is expected to fall short of 2,310 million tonnes in 2023-24, with maize accounting for most of the drop.

RICE

Largely reflecting prospects for firmer demand for 100% broken following the lifting of Indian export restrictions, the outlook for rice trade in 2025-26 is lifted by around 1 million tonnes, to a peak of 59 million tonnes. The government had on Mar. 7 allowed exports of non-basmati broken rice, which were banned in September 2022 to control firm prices in the domestic markets.  

Growing populations in key consuming regions are set to underpin expanded total use, while firmer demand from buyers in Asia and Africa could see trade increase to a record. "India is set to remain the dominant exporter," it added.

Based on acreage gains and trend yields, global output is predicted to expand to a high of 538 million tonnes in 2025-26, against 534 million tonnes in 2024-25, the council said. "On the demand side, both consumption and trade are projected to reach respective records while a modest uplift in inventories is anticipated, chiefly on accumulation in China," it said.

"Following on from a year of record production and consumption, the Council's tentative expectations for 2025-26 point to further gains in global rice output, boosted by expanded plantings and trend yields," the council said.

WHEAT  

The council has scaled up its 2025-26 wheat production estimate to 807 million tonnes from 799 million tonnes in 2024-25. Consumption is seen higher at 813 million tonnes in 2025-26 compared to 807 million tonnes in the current year. This is likely to pull down carryover stocks for 2025-26 to 259 million tonnes from 265 million tonnes in 2024-25.

MAIZE

The council projected maize production to rise to 1,269 million tonnes in 2025-26, from 1,217 million tonnes in 2024-25. Trade is seen at 183 million tonnes in 2025-26, higher by 1 million tonnes from 2024-25.  End

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Saji George Titus

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