More Stories

Informist, Tuesday, Mar. 11, 2025

By Gowri Lakshmi

MUMBAI – The rupee reversed all the losses from early trade and ended higher against the dollar as the dollar index hit a near five-month low, dealers said. Banks' persistent dollar sales, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India also aided the Indian unit, they said. 

"Was relatively a quiet day with less dollar demand from importers and significant boost from the dollar supplies (from RBI), weak dollar and the Chinese yuan," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "It was mostly RBI who did the talk today (Tuesday), they protected rupee significantly at all levels whenever it (rupee) under pressure," said another dealer at a private bank.

After rising 0.1% against the greenback, the rupee settled at 87.2125 against the dollar. Barring the Indonesian rupiah, most other Asian currencies appreciated 0.1%-0.4%, with the offshore Chinese yuan being the best performer.

The rupee opened slightly lower at 87.3800 against the greenback as oil marketing companies and other importers rushed to purchase dollars to meet their year-end payment obligations, dealers said. The rupee came under pressure and was dragged to the day's low of 87.3850 a dollar in early trade as banks also purchased dollars ahead of the daily reference rate fixing window, dealers said.

After the initial rush, the rupee held steady as importers' dollar demand cooled. As soon as the Indian unit inched toward 87.40, some state-owned banks stepped in with dollar sales, possibly on behalf of the RBI, at multiple levels, which supported the rupee, dealers said. "Unlike before, the RBI doesn't seem to be vehemently protecting a particular level all the time. It mostly intervenes and guides a direction for the rupee's movement," said a dealer at another private bank.

A recovery in the domestic equity market also boosted the Indian currency, according to some dealers. The benchmark Nifty 50 ended slightly up, by 0.2%, while the BSE Sensex ended flat.

The rupee also received some support from a rise in the offshore Chinese yuan. The Chinese currency rose 0.3% against the greenback owing to the continued weakness in the dollar index.

The dollar index slumped after the European markets opened as investors turned jittery over a potential recession in the US amid global growth concerns over tariffs. The euro strengthened significantly and rose 0.6% against the greenback while the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen were each up 0.2%.

At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.51, compared to 103.90 Monday and 103.91 Friday. The index fell to a near-five-month low of 103.33 Tuesday. Market participants are now waiting for the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data due later in the day, for more cues on the US labour market.

Continued dollar sales from the central bank coupled with a slump in the dollar index pushed the rupee to hit the day's high of 87.1700, dealers said. "It was mostly RBI who did the talk today (Tuesday), they protected rupee significantly at all levels whenever it (rupee) was under pressure," a dealer at a private bank said.

FORWARDS

The premium on the one-year dollar/rupee forward contract ended higher Tuesday as some banks purchased the greenback for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, the rise in premiums was capped as a few banks sold forward dollars, noting a relatively higher premium, they said.

Despite a fall in the dollar index, the rupee has remained under pressure this week. This is largely due to risk-averse sentiment amongst investors, dealers said. Investors have been weighing other safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, which have risen in the past few days against the greenback.

Further, some dealers speculated that the RBI sold forward dollars, which limited the rise in premiums. The central bank may have sold dollars for forward delivery to offset the impact of its spot dollar sales on rupee liquidity. 

At 1530 IST, the premium on the one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward contract was 189.63 paise, against 188.36 paise Monday. On an annualised basis, the premium was 2.17% against the previous close of 2.16%.

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from the movement in the dollar index after the US jobs data, dealers said. The rupee will also take cues from the movement in the offshore Chinese yuan, they said.

Dealers expect the rupee to come under pressure as banks may purchase dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, who continue to exit the Indian financial markets, dealers said. So far in 2025, overseas investors have net withdrawn $11.68 billion worth of assets from Indian financial markets. However, they expect some banks to step in with dollar sales, possibly on behalf of the RBI, to prevent the rupee from falling sharply and to curb excessive market volatility. 

During the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.00-87.50 against the dollar. Dealers see technical support for the Indian unit at 87.40 a dollar. 

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index near 5-mo low on US economic growth concerns

MUMBAI – The dollar index hit a near five-month low as investor sentiment turn jittery over concern around the US economic growth, and as they continued to assess the impact of the trade war spurred by US President Donald Trump. Investors have turned their focus on other safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

At 1534 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.36, compared with 103.90 on Monday and 103.91 on Friday. The index fell to low of 103.33 earlier in the day, the lowest since Oct. 16. Market participants would be keeping an eye on the US jobs data, due later in the day. 

The euro strengthened significantly and rose 0.6% against the greenback. The pound sterling was up 0.4% against the US unit. But gains in the currency were capped after the UK's consumer spending declined in February, data on Tuesday showed. The British Retail Consortium retail sales rose by 1.1% on year, down from a robust 2.6% growth in the prior month.

The Australian dollar was up 0.2% against the US unit after the Australian consumer sentiment hit a three-year high in March due to slowing inflation and easing of the monetary policy last month, a survey on Tuesday showed. Sequentially, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment rose 4% in March. The index rose 13.6% on year. The New Zealand dollar was up 0.1%, tracking gains in the Australian dollar. Any change in the Australian economy directly impacts the New Zealand currency due to their close bilateral trade relations.

The Canadian dollar was up 0.1% against the greenback. The gains in the currency were limited as Canada's central bank is widely expected to lower its interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, amid a trade war with its largest trading partner.

The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen rose 0.1% on safe-haven inflows. However, gains in the Japanese currency were capped after the country posted a weaker-than-expected GDP for the quarter ended December. Japan's economy expanded at a slower pace of 2.2% on year in Oct-Dec, against the initial estimate of 2.8% growth.

Another data from Japan showed that household spending rose 0.8% in January year on year, below the market estimate for a 3.6% jump in a Reuters poll. However, market participants widely expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this year. It is likely to keep the Japanese currency supported.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

India Rupee: Erases losses as RBI sells dlrs, dollar index at 4-month low

MUMBAI – The rupee erased all losses from early trade and rose against the dollar as banks persistently sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The dollar index hit a fresh four-month low in European trade, which further boosted the Indian unit, they said. 

The rupee had earlier touched a low of 87.3850 against the greenback due to dollar demand from importers and as banks purchased dollars ahead of the daily reference rate fixing, dealers said. However, as the rupee came under pressure, the central bank stepped in with its dollar sales, which prevented the rupee from falling sharply, dealers said, addig that importers' dollar demand cooled afer the morning rush, which fuelled the rupee's rise.

The Indian unit got a boost and touched a high of 87.1700 against the greenback as the dollar index weakened to a fresh four-month low, dealers said. The dollar weakened against all major global currencies due to concerns about a recession in the US and as investor sentiments turned jittery amid fears of a tariff war, dealers said. The dollar came under pressure as the euro strengthened significantly and rose 0.8%. The Swiss franc was up 0.1% against the US dollar due to safe-haven inflows. 

At 1433 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.34, compared to 103.90 on Monday and 103.91 on Friday. The index fell to low of 103.34 earlier in the day, the lowest since Nov. 5. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.10-87.40 against the dollar. Dealers see strong immediate technical resistance for the Indian unit at 87.10 a dollar.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

India Rupee: Premium up on importers' fwd dlr buys; bks' dlr sales cap rise

MUMBAI – The premium on the one-year dollar/rupee forward contract was up Tuesday as some banks purchased the greenback for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, the rise in premiums was capped as a few banks sold forward dollars, noting a relatively higher premium, they said.

"There is a general paying in the market, but the upside is capped, as some people are receiving on the higher side," a dealer with a private bank said. Importers purchased the greenback for forward delivery as they anticipated the rupee may remain under pressure, and could fall further in coming days amid an uncertain global trade scenario, dealers said.

Despite a fall in the dollar index, the rupee has remained under pressure this week. This is largely due to a risk-averse sentiment amongst investors, dealer said. Investors have been weighing other safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, which have risen in the past few days against the greenback.

While importers' demand for forward dollars lifted the one-year premium higher, the upward movement was limited as some banks took advantage of relatively higher premiums and sold forward dollars, dealers said. The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium touched a near-one-week high of 2.21% in early trade. At higher levels, some banks sold forward dollars as they anticipated that premiums may fall ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's $10-billion dollar/rupee buy/sell swap auction on Mar. 24.

Further, some dealers speculated that the RBI sold forward dollars, which limited the rise in premiums. The central bank may have sold dollars for forward delivery to offset the impact of its spot dollar sales on rupee liquidity. On Tuesday, the central bank sold dollars in the spot market to support the rupee, dealers said. 

At 1358 IST, the premium on the one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward contract was 190.13 paise, against 188.36 paise Monday. On an annualised basis, the premium was 2.18% against the previous close of 2.16%.  (Sourabh Kumar)

India Rupee: Remains steady as likely RBI dollar sales offset importer buys

MUMBAI – The rupee remained steady against the dollar as some banks stepped in with dollar sales, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which offset the downward impact of dollar purchases from importers, dealers said.

"Some supply (of dollars) is there across all levels...the current buying pressure is ahead of the fixing window, after which the market will correct itself," said a dealer at a state-owned bank. "It's a relatively calmer day, importers' have practically become less active from morning or previous weeks." 

The rupee touched a low of 87.3850 earlier in the day as banks purchased greenback on behalf of importers in early trade, dealers said. As soon as the rupee inched toward 87.40 a dollar, the central bank intervened in the spot market with dollar sales, dealers said. "In the morning, they intervened at 87.38, now they have come at 87.35 and other levels, there is continuous supply (of dollars)," said the dealer at a state-owned bank.

The rupee recevied support from a weakness in the dollar index, and due to a rise in the offshore Chinese yuan, which was up 0.3% against the greenback. However, lossess in the Indian stock market weighed on the rupee, dealers said. "Equivalent appreciation from yuan is not seen in rupee, since mostly our currency is flow-based," said the currency trader. "And for months foreign investors are net sellers from out market." So far in 2025, overseas investors have net withdrawn $11.68 billion worth of assets from Indian financial markets. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.00-87.50 against the dollar. Dealers see strong immediate technical support for the Indian unit at 87.40 a dollar.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

India Rupee: Technical Levels for rupee - Mar 11

MUMBAI – At 1027 IST, the rupee was at 87.2950 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 87.3800 a dollar, against the previous close of 87.3300. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

(Sourabh Kumar and Gowri Lakshmi)

India Rupee: Steady as fall in dollar index offsets importers' buys

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar as a relatively weaker dollar index offset the downward pressure from banks' dollar purchases on behalf of importers, dealers said. The rupee also received support from a rising Chinese yuan, which was up 0.2% in early trade Tuesday.

"There was buying (of dollars) from importers in early trade but it has come down now. All markets are in a turmoil from equities to forex...despite that the rupee is still holding steady," said a dealer at a private bank. "The central bank has started giving much more leeway for the market, now they don't protect a level but gives a direction for movement."

The rupee was dragged to a low of 87.3850 shortly after the spot market opened as banks purchased the greenback on behalf of importers, who wanted to meet their year-end payment obligations, dealers said. However, dealers said some banks also sold the greenback for exporters, which released some pressure on the Indian currency.

The dollar index continued to remain weak as investors moved their funds to other safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc amid concern about US economic growth, and uncertainty over tariffs by the US.

At 0939 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.77, compared with 103.90 on Monday and 103.91 on Friday.

A fall in domestic equities weighed on the rupee, according to some dealers. At 0944 IST, the benchmark indices, the Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex, were down 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. 

"We may not be seeing a complete impact of a weakening dollar index as the rupee sometimes decouples itself from dollar. The overall mood in the market is negative, and the market has the tendency to absorb negative sentiments first, that's why we see continued outflows despite a global growth concern even in US," said the dealer at a private bank.

During the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.00-87.50 against the dollar. Dealers see technical support for the Indian unit at 87.40 a dollar.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Thai baht up on govt stimulus plans

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note on Tuesday due to a risk-averse sentiment among investors amid concerns about US growth and the potential impact of tariff measures by the US. The dollar continued to weaken against most major global currencies as investors moved to other safe-haven assets. In early Asian trade, the Japanese yen, the euro and the Swiss franc all gained 0.2% against greenback. 

At 0854 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.73, compared to 103.90 on Monday and 103.91 on Friday. 

The Thai baht was up 0.1% against the US unit after Thailand's officials said on Monday that the government wanted to lift economic growth above the target of 3% this year with plans to roll out the next phase of its economic stimulus programme from Apr-Jun. The government has a $4.4-billion plan for the stimulus, said deputy finance minister Paopoom Rojanasakul. 

The Chinese yuan was up 0.2% against the greenback. Washington and Beijing are in early stages of discussions about a potential "birthday summit" in June in the US between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing sources. 

The Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah were down 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, against the greenback. These currencies came under pressure due to a fall in their respective stock markets. In early trade on Tuesday, Malaysia's benchmark index, the Kuala Lampur Composite Index, was down 0.9% and Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index was down 0.8%. 

The Philippines peso and the Taiwan dollar were down 0.1% against the greenback. The South Korean won was down 0.2%. On Tuesday, South Korea's acting President Choi Sang-mok said US President Donald Trump's "America First" policies had started targetting his country. Choi said Seoul was in discussions with Washington over tariff measures and better cooperation ahead of the reciprocal tariffs set be implemented from Apr. 2.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 11

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

(Sourabh Kumar and Gowri Lakshmi)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Rajeev Pai

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.