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Informist, Friday, Feb. 21, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The International Grains Council has scaled down its estimate for global production in 2024-25 by 3 million tonnes to 2,301 million tonnes, compared to its projections in January, according to a grain market report released Thursday. The cut is mainly because of an expected drop in sorghum and maize output amid worsening prospects for South America.  

 

The estimate for total grains output is also lower on a yearly basis due to a smaller maize crop. The IGC pegs grain output in 2024-25 8 million tonnes lower than 2,309 million tonnes last year. The council has cut its estimate for maize production to 1,216 million tonnes from 1,219 million tonnes; this is also lower than last year's figure of 1,231 million tonnes.

 

The forecast for global consumption has been lowered modestly to 2,334 million tonnes from 2,335 million tonnes, though this would still be a record high, the council said. Cumulative ending stocks are now estimated at 576 million tonnes, a little higher than in January, but down 5% on year, driven by contraction for major exporters. The estimate for global grains trade has been cut by 1 million tonnes to 419 million tonnes due to lower sorghum and wheat import figures for China.

 

The council sees China's wheat imports in 2024-25 (Jul-Jun) at 7.7 million tonnes, down from 9.2 million tonnes last year. The country's total wheat supply is now seen at 287.9 million tonnes, lower than the previous estimate of 289.4 million tonnes, it said.  

 

RICE

Global rice production in 2024-25 has been pegged at 534 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from the estimate in January. However, the production is forecast 2% higher from 524 million tonnes last year. Inventories are predicted to accumulate, with closing stocks in the five majors exporting countries exceeding 50 million tonnes for the first time, the report said. Vietnam, India, the US, Thailand, and Pakistan are the five major exporters.   

 

Rice exports for the year are now estimated to increase to 56.7 million tonnes, against the projection of 56.3 million tonnes last month, but lower than 57.1 million tonnes last year. Rice consumption is seen at a record high of 532 million tonnes, against 523 million tonnes last year. The estimate for carryover stocks is unchanged at 176 million tonnes, higher than 173.5 million tonnes last year.

 

For 2025-26, the council sees global rice acreage edging higher, mainly due to higher sowing in Asia, including India. However, a year-on-year drop in arcreage in other regions could cap the overall expansion, it said. IGC's price index for rice slumped to a more than two-year low in February. 

 

WHEAT  

The council has scaled up its 2024-25 wheat production estimate to 797 million tonnes from 796 million tonnes, against 795 million tonnes a year ago. Major exporters are likely to see 60 million tonnes of exports, up from 59 million tonnes expected last month, but lower than 63 million tonnes last year. Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Canada, the US, Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan. 

 

Amid ongoing concerns about 2025-26 winter crops in some producers in the northern hemisphere, IGC's price index for wheat rose 4% on month in February. There are a few changes to the council's wheat projections for 2025-26, which include outlooks for increased output, consumption and trade, but another drawdown in stocks.

 

SOYBEAN

Tied to bigger crops in the US and Brazil, 2024-25 global soyabean output is predicted to rise 5% on year to 418 million tonnes, down from 420 million tonnes estimated last month. "With gains spanning feed, food and industrial segments, record processing is anticipated," the council said.

 

Carryover stocks have been estimated at 82 million tonnes, down from the previous projection of 84 million tonnes, but 11% higher than last year. The projection for trade has been left unchanged at 180 million tonnes, up 1% on year.  End

 

US$1 = INR 86.67

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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