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Informist, Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

By Sandeep Sinha

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold rose on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the COMEX as concerns about a global trade war boosted the metal's safe-haven demand. Weaker-than-expected US retail sales data prompted traders to raise bets of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

US retail sales fell 0.9% in January compared to a 0.7% rise in December, US Census Bureau data released on Friday showed. The fall in retail sales was higher than analysts' estimate of a 0.2% decline polled by Investing.com.

"Gold continues to benefit from the uncertainty surrounding the US government's tariff policy," Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in a note. Buying by central banks should also continue to provide support, even if there is no new data on this, he said.

At 1801 IST, the most-active April GOLD contract on the MCX was up 0.6% at INR 85,570 per 10 grams. The most-active April gold contract on COMEX was up 1% at $2,928.80 per ounce. The highest call open interest was at INR 86,000-INR 87,000 strike prices, indicating a bullish view. The highest put open interest was at INR 82,000-INR 80,000 strikes for the Feb. 28 contract.

However, the upside in the yellow metal was restricted by a strong dollar, which makes dollar-denominated commodities expensive for those holding other currencies. At 1801 IST, the Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was up 0.2% at 106.98.

SILVER contracts traded higher taking cues from COMEX and a firm trend in gold and industrial metals. At 1801 IST, the most-active March contract on the MCX was up 0.5% at INR 96,045 per kilogram. The same-month contract on the COMEX was up 0.4% at $32.99 per ounce. On the options front, the highest call open interest was at the INR 100,000 strike price. The highest put open interest was at INR 90,000 strike for the Feb. 24 expiry contract.

The MCX Bulldex, an index that tracks the real-time performance of gold and silver futures on the MCX, was up 108 points at 20444 points. The April and June gold contracts on the MCX recorded turnovers of INR 30.06 billion and INR 1.18 billion, respectively. The March and May silver contracts saw a turnover of INR 13.84 billion and INR 3.53 billion, respectively.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 84,875–INR 85,821 per 10 gm

--COMEX gold seen at $2,901.0–$2,971.0 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 95,448-INR 96,618 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $32.62-$33.20 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 86.95

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Ashish Shirke

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