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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has trimmed its estimate for global oilseed output in 2024-25 to 677.70 million tonnes from 680.35 tonnes projected a month ago, it said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for February.

Production estimates have been lowered as output in Argentina and Paraguay have fallen due to persistent heat and dryness in January, the department said in its report.

Output of oilseed in other countries, excluding the US, is projected at 549.22 million tonnes, down from 551.9 million tonnes estimated last month. The production estimate for the US is unchanged at 128.48 million tonnes.

The global soybean production estimate has been brought down to 420.76 million tonnes from 424.26 million tonnes in the previous month. Beneficial weather in the centre-west region of the globe is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the global southern regions is accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields, the department said. 

Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 169.00 million tonnes. The soybean output estimate in Argentina has been lowered to 49.00 million tonnes from 52.00 million tonnes in January, while that in Paraguay has also been reduced to 10.70 million tonnes from 11.20 million tonnes last month.

Along with forecasts of lower soybean production in 2024-25, the US Department of Agriculture has projected a negligible rise in soybean exports, with an incraese in crushing and a fall in ending stocks. Global soybean exports in 2024-25 is pegged at 181.98 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from 181.97 million tonnes estimated in January, the report said.

Global soybean crushing is now pegged at 349.89 million tonnes, up slightly from 349.29 million tonnes a month ago due to a rise in crushing activities in Brazil. Brazil's crushing is estimated at 56.00 million tonnes, up from 55.00 million tonnes in January. The rise is also driven by favourable crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. The negligible rise in exports is offset by "lower soybean and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies," the department said.

Global ending stocks estimates have been brought down by 4.00 million tonnes to 124.30 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil, the department said.  

Meanwhile, soybean meal output in 2024-25 is estimated slightly higher at 274.58 million tonnes from 274.11 million tonnes in January. Soybean meal is a by-product of the extraction of soybean oil. 

India's production of soybean meal in 2024-25 has been projected at 8.80 million tonnes, unchanged from the estimate last month. Production in 2023-24 has been estimated at 9.04 million tonnes. India is one of the largest importers of soy oil and an exporter of soybean meal. 

"US 2024-25 soybean supply and use projections are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively," the department said.  End

US$1 = INR 86.89

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

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