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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has raised its estimate for global wheat supply in 2024-25 by 600,000 tonnes to 1.06 billion tonnes due to higher production in Argentina and Kazakhstan, the department said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for February. However, the global body sees lower trade and ending stocks this year, despite higher consumption. 

The department has also raised its estimate for wheat consumption to 803.7 million tonnes from 801.9 million tonnes, mainly driven by higher feed and residual use for the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine, it said. 

Ending stocks of wheat are estimated lower at 257.6 million tonnes compared to the estimate of 258.8 million tonnes in January. Global trade is now seen at 209.0 million tonnes in February, lower than 212.0 million tonnes earlier. The fall is because of reduced exports from the EU, Mexico, Turkey, and Ukraine.  

The biggest change in imports is attributed to the ongoing slow import pace in China, with the country's imports expected to be 2.5 million tonnes lower at 8.0 million tonnes. "These would be their lowest imports in five years and China was the leading world wheat importer last year at 13.6 million tonnes."   

The department has kept India's wheat output estimate unchanged from November at 113.29 million tonnes. The department's estimates show India's wheat production in 2023-24 at 110.55 million tonnes, while the Indian government's output estimate is 113.3 million tonnes. 

RICE

"The 2024-25 global outlook this month is for fractionally lower supplies, slightly higher consumption and trade, and reduced ending stocks." The department has lowered its estimate for global rice supply by 200,000 tonnes to 712.2 million tonnes amid a lower output estimate for Sri Lanka.

It has increased the estimate for rice consumption by 300,000 tonnes to 530.5 million tonnes owing to predictions of higher imports by China. The estimate for global trade has been raised by 400,000 tonnes to a record 58.3 million tonnes, mostly due to higher exports by India, at a near-record 22.0 million tonnes. In January, the US Department of Agriculture predicted India's rice exports for the current year at 21.5 million tonnes.

The US Department of Agriculture forecasts world ending stocks for 2024-25 at 181.6 million tonnes, a fall of 500,000 tonnes, mainly due to reductions for India and Sri Lanka. This is partially offset by increases for several countries, including the US.  End

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

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