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Informist, Monday, Feb. 3, 2025

By J. Navya Sruthi

MUMBAI – Wheat prices have continued on a downtrend for a week now due to prospects of higher output. Traders expect wheat prices to fall to the level of the minimum support price of INR 2,425 per 100 kg. Prices of maize and rice in key markets in the country were steady Monday, traders said.   

Prices of mill-quality WHEAT were down by INR 20 at INR 3,090 per 100 kg in Indore in Madhya Pradesh, local trader Gaurav Kochar said, adding that prices fell INR 210 per 100 kg from the all-time high of INR 3,300 hit in January. Prices of the same quality wheat were down by INR 50 at INR 3,350 per 100 kg in Navi Mumbai's Vashi market, wholesale dealer Devendra Vora said. According to traders, prices of wheat in Delhi were also down by INR 10 at INR 3,040 per 100 kg and INR 310, lower than the historical high of INR 3,350 per 100 kg, hit in January.  

Wheat prices started falling since last week due to a larger area under the crop than last year, prospects of higher production, and increase of wheat offloads in the weekly government auctions, traders said. As of Jan. 27, wheat acreage was higher by 2.8% on year at 32.44 million hectares. 

Based on the current scenario, wheat production is estimated to be around 105-110 million tonnes, Kochar said. Though the government's estimate for wheat production in 2023-24 (Jul-Jun) was at 113.3 million tonnes, industry had estimated it at 100-105 million tonnes due to crop damage. 

"But seeing the climatic conditions, normal temperatures are up nearly 5% this season. So we can expect some yield losses due to hot weather, 10%-15% loss can be expected if weather continues with hot climate," Kochar said. However, as of now, there is no crop domage, wholesale dealer Vora said. 

Wheat prices are likely to fall to INR 2,400-INR 2,500 per 100 kg during March and May, when arrivals are at a peak, Kochar said. The government will buy wheat from farmers in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh with a bonus of INR 125 over the minimum support price of INR 2,425 per 100 kg, adding up to INR 2,550 per 100 kg.

However, if unfavourable weather conditions persist and lead to extended yield losses, India may be compelled to resort to wheat imports this year to meet domestic demand, Kochar said.

The price of MAIZE at Davanagere in Karnataka was steady at INR 2,000-INR 2,380 per 100 kg. Arrivals were also steady at 2,000 bags (1 bag = 60 kg), local trader Shiva Kumar said. Despite a fall in demand, maize prices as low demand was offset by low moisture content in the grain, which is below 14%, Kumar said. 

The price of sonam RICE from Gujarat was steady at INR 5,300 per 100 kg in the Vashi market, according to wholesale dealer Vora. The price of kolam rice from Nagpur was also steady at INR 5,300-INR 5,400 per 100 kg and that of new basmati rice was unchanged at INR 6,000-INR 6,400 per 100 kg, he said. The price of sona masoori rice was also unchanged at INR 5,500-INR 6,400 per 100 kg at Bhavanipuram in Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh, local trader Ravi Shankar said.  End

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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