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Informist, Monday, Jan. 20, 2025

 

By Anjali Lavania and Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – The bearish trend in tur prices is expected to continue for one to three months due to multiple factors. These factors include arrivals with high moisture content, high domestic production estimate, and huge imports from African countries.

 

"Tur production is projected at 3.5 million tonnes in 2024-25, reflecting a 2.5% increase from last year's 3.42 million tonnes," said Indrajit Paul, head of research at Agrocrop International. Tur is a kharif crop which is sown in the months of June and July and harvested during December and January.

 

Currently, tur prices in Akola, Maharashtra, are in the range of INR 7,650-INR 7,700 per 100 kg, down by INR 1,125 from last month, Paul said. Tur prices in Kalaburagi, Karnataka, are in the range of INR 6,330-INR 8,150 per 100 kg, down by INR 850 from last month. In the Delhi market, tur prices are INR 7,500-INR 7,600 per 100 kg, down by INR 2,000 in the last one month.

 

Prices are down due to huge arrivals across spot markets in the country. "The arrivals of domestic tur in local markets increased significantly in December and continues to rise further in January. Government data indicates that tur arrivals in December were approximately 85,000 tonnes, up from 20,000 tonnes in November, while arrivals from Jan 1-Jan 18 have surged to 110,000 tonnes all over India," Paul said. The country's major tur producing states are Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.

 

Imports from various countries are also contributing to the fall in prices. "Huge crops and huge imports have led to good availability of tur," said Rahul Chauhan, director of IGrain India. Tur imports in December were estimated at 97,193 tonnes compared to 82,103 tonnes in the same period last year, according to data provided by Chauhan. Tur imports in the Apr-Dec period were estimated at 1.08 million tonnes compared to 771,025 tonnes a year ago.

 

Tur prices plummeted to INR 6,500 per 100 kg this month, down a whopping 45% from a high of INR 11,300-INR 12,000 per 100 kg in June, causing distress to farmers, Chauhan said.

 

"Tur prices are falling as the harvest is progressing. Karnataka, being the key producer, is witnessing a higher decline," said Gaurav Jain, founder and commodity expert at AgPulse Analytica.

 

Though prices in Karnataka have gone below the minimum support price of INR 7,550 per 100 kg, the picture is not as clear as it seems, Veerkumar Kadkol, a trader from the Kalaburagi district in the state, a benchmark market for tur, said. Tur is priced between INR 6,300 and INR 8,200 per 100 kg. The price range is very wide due to the variation in the quality of the pulse, he said.

 

"When arrivals of the new crop begin, the market receives low quality tur first. The quality of tur is low when it has a higher moisture content, is deformed, or has too much dirt. Such tur is sold at a lower price as animal feed as it is unfit for human consumption," Kadkol said. On the other hand, tur of better quality is selling well above the minimum support price, anywhere between INR 7,800 and INR 8,200 per 100 kg, he said. Though prices have fallen substantially due to rising arrivals of the kharif crop, they are unlikely to fall below the minimum support price in the medium to long term, he said.

 

The government has set a procurement target of 966,575 tonnes at the minimum support price of INR 7,550 per 100 kg. The government has sanctioned additional procurement of 475,290 tonnes - 169,140 tonnes from Telangana and 306,150 tonnes from Karnataka, according to a release by the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India on Dec. 16. In Karnataka, registration for purchasing tur at the minimum support price has commenced, with procurement expected to begin shortly.

 

The prolonged decline in soybean and tur prices in Vidarbha, where these crops rank second and third in importance after cotton, poses a significant challenge for farmers, Paul said. "This price erosion reduces profit margins, making it difficult for farmers. Farmers may shift to alternative crops, but the transition entails risks, including climatic unsuitability and higher input costs. Additionally, soybean and tur are critical for soil health--soybean fixes nitrogen, while tur is drought-resistant," he said. To address this, the government should achieve its procurement target of 966,575 tonnes for tur, which could provide some price support, helping to stabilise farmers' incomes and promote sustainable agriculture, he said.

 

Tur prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term as arrivals of the kharif crop may increase, especially in Vidarbha, the India Pulses and Grains Association said in its weekly report on Monday, citing market experts. Demand is expected to remain low because of issues over quality in the new crop from Maharashtra and Karnataka, which have a higher moisture content, continue to keep buyers away, it said.  

 

In three to six months, prices are likely to improve as the government initiates its procurement programme and with millers increasing their purchases, with a projected range of INR 7,900-INR 8,000 per 100 kg, Paul said.

 

Government procurement may help support prices, offering relief to the oversold market, the association said. Instead of selling their crop at lower prices, farmers in Karnataka are waiting for the government to begin buying.

 

The moisture levels in the pulse are expected to improve by the middle term, as arrivals from Vidarbha and other major tur producing states increase, the association said. The rise in arrivals of better quality tur is likely to boost purchases by mills and procurement by the government, stabilising prices, the association said.

 

However, market participants and experts are divided in their opinion about the price levels in the long-term. Paul believes that over the long term, prices are expected to stabilise, with a potential season high of INR 8,500 per 100 kg. On the other hand, Namit Agrawal, an agro-commodity trader at Namit Agro Impex in Jalgaon, Maharashtra, said he does not see any major returns in tur and in long and markets would be range bound. A rise of INR 400-INR 500 is normal in the medium to long term, he said.  End

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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