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Informist, Monday, Jan. 13, 2025

 

NEW DELHI – The US Department of Agriculture has raised its estimate for global wheat supply in 2024-25 by 400,000 tonnes to 1,060.7 million tonnes. "Higher production for Syria and Pakistan more than offsets a reduction for Uruguay," the department said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for January. 

 

The department has cut its estimate for global wheat consumption by 600,00 tonnes to 801.9 million tonnes, primarily due to a reduction for Turkey, partially offset by Ukraine, the report said. Global ending stocks for 2024-25 are projected 900,000 tonnes higher at 258.8 million tonnes due to increases for Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, and Ukraine, more than offsetting reductions for Turkey, China, and Indonesia, it added.

 

"The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly larger supplies, lower consumption, reduced trade, and higher ending stocks," the department said. 

 

Global wheat trade is projected 1.7 million tonnes lower at 212.0 million tonnes due to a decline in exports for Russia and Ukraine. Russia's exports are pegged at 46.0 million tonnes, down 1.0 million tonnes from last month and well below last year's record of 55.5 million tonnes, the report said. 

 

The department has kept India's wheat output estimate unchanged from November at 113.29 million tonnes. The department's estimates show India's wheat production in 2023-24 at 110.55 million tonnes, while the Indian government's output estimate is 113.3 million tonnes.  

 

RICE

The USDA has lowered its estimate for global rice supply by 400,000 tonnes to 712.4 million tonnes amid a lower output estimate for China, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. Production in China is seen at 145.3 million tonnes, against 146.0 million tonnes projected last month. 

 

The estimate for global consumption has been lowered by 100,000 tonnes to 530.2 million tonnes, mainly due to lower forecasts for Bangladesh and China, the department said. "The 2024-25 global outlook this month is for smaller supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks," it added.

 

The estimate for global trade has been cut by 200,000 tonnes to 57.9 million tonnes, with reductions for Vietnam and Thailand. The projection for global ending stocks has been lowered by 300,000 tonnes to 182.1 million tonnes as reductions for China, Bangladesh, the US, and Pakistan are partially offset by higher stocks for Vietnam, Nigeria, and Thailand, it added. 

 

The department sees India's rice production in 2024-25 at 145 million tonnes, and consumption at 121 million tonnes, both unchanged from a month ago. In 2023-24, the country's rice output was estimated at 137.83 million tonnes and consumption at 116.40 million tonnes. The Indian government pegged rice production in 2023-24 at a record 137.8 million tonnes, up 2.1 million tonnes from the previous year.  End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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