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Informist, Friday, Jan. 10, 2025

By Sandeep Sinha

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold were trading higher on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the COMEX on Friday as concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies and the UK budget crisis boosted bullion's safe-haven appeal. Investors await the US non-farm payrolls and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index data to be released later Friday for further cues.

"Gold is likely to benefit from the uncertain global political situation and at least defend its current price level," Commerzbank said in a note.

The yellow metal is on track to close the week with a gain, having traded higher for a fourth straight session and rising 2%, or $53.4 an ounce, on the COMEX and 1.5%, or INR 1,151 per 10 grams, on the MCX so far this week.

Analysts polled by Dow Jones see the payrolls at 155,000 in December, down from 227,000 in November. The payrolls data could provide crucial insights into the Fed's rate path and potentially introduce additional volatility to gold prices, Reliance Securities said in a note.

"Gold prices will continue to be influenced by global macros as the domestic season is past and near term we expect a slight uppish bias till the first declarations from the US administration start beyond Jan. 20 when we expect real triggers for gold for the rest of the year," Sandip Raichura, chief executive officer - retail broking and distribution, director – Prabhudas Lilladher Broking and Distribution said in an email note.

At 1628 IST, the most-active February GOLD contract on the MCX was up 0.5% at INR 78,476 per 10 grams. The most-active February contract on the COMEX was up 0.7% at $2,708.90 per ounce. The highest call open interest for gold was at INR 79,000-INR 80,000 strike prices, suggesting a bullish view. The highest put open interest was at the INR 77,000 strike price for the Jan. 27 contract.

On Thursday, gold holdings with SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained steady for the fourth day at 871.08 tonnes. The fund has a market value of $74.45 billion. On the National Stock Exchange, the total value of gold ETFs traded on Friday was INR 1.38 billion, up from INR 1.17 billion in the previous session.

SILVER contracts traded higher, taking cues from COMEX, and firm trends in gold and industrial metals. At 1630 IST, the most-active March contract on the MCX was up 0.5% at INR 92,150 per kg. The same-month contract on the COMEX was 0.6% higher at $31.21 per ounce. On the options front, the highest call open interest was at the INR 100,000 strike price. The highest put open interest was at INR 90,000 strike for the Feb. 24 expiry contract.

The MCX Bulldex, an index that tracks the real-time performance of gold and silver futures on the MCX, was up 89 points at 19105 points. Until 1632 IST, the February and April gold contracts recorded turnover of INR 24.38 billion and INR 7.64 billion, respectively, on the MCX. The March and May silver contracts saw turnover of INR 14.74 billion and INR 1.16 billion, respectively.

The spot gold-silver ratio, also known as the Mint ratio, rose to 88.31 on Friday, indicating that gold had outperformed silver. The ratio measures the ounces of silver required to buy an ounce of gold. The ratio was at 88.05 on Thursday.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 77,840–INR 78,790 per 10 gm

--COMEX gold seen at $2,679.0–$2,724.80 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 91,650-INR 93,013 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $30.98-$31.60 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 85.97

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Saji George Titus

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