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Informist, Friday, Jan. 3, 2025

By Anjali Lavania

MUMBAI – Prices of mustard seed and groundnut were steady in the key spot markets of the country Friday while those of soybean fell in Indore, traders said. Market participants believe soybean prices may remain bearish in the long term due to weak domestic and international demand for soymeal from India and huge imports of soyoil by the country.

MUSTARD seed prices were steady at INR 6,425-INR 6,450 per 100 kilograms in Jaipur, Rajasthan. Arrivals in the state were unchanged at 70,000 bags (1 bag = 50 kg). Similarly, arrivals across the country were steady at 170,000 bags, according to Marudhar Trading Agency.

"During the current month, a temporary recovery is possible, but prices may fall again as the harvest season nears," said a trader on condition of anonymity. In the long term, mustard seed prices are expected to rise, especially since production this year is likely to be lower.

In 2025, mustard prices could trend towards INR 7,300 per 100 kg, especially if they break the resistance level of INR 6,950 per 100 kg, signalling bullish momentum. "The long-term outlook is supported by expectations of lower crop production, which could tighten supplies and push prices higher," said Indrajit Paul, head of research at Agrocorp International. 

SOYBEAN prices in Indore, Madhya Pradesh, fell by INR 100 to INR 3,800-INR 4,275 per 100 kg, Shailendra Soni, a trader from Madhya Pradesh, said. Arrivals rose by 1,100 bags to 4,000 bags (1 bag = 90 kg), he said. In the long term, soybean prices are expected to remain bearish, he said. 

"The fall in prices of the legume is due to the increased supply of lower-priced Nepali-origin soyoil in north and central India, which has disrupted the market equilibrium, contributing to the price decline," Soni said. Moreover, sluggish global demand for soymeal from India and increased imports of soyoil by the country have weighed prices down, he said.

India's soymeal exports fell 52.5% on year to 130,000 tonnes in November from 274,000 tonnes, according to The Soybean Processors Association of India. For Oct-Nov, soymeal exports fell to 241,000 tonnes from 385,000 tonnes a year ago, SOPA said.

Higher imports of soyoil have led to reduced demand for the domestic oilseed by millers, resulting in lower crushing, said Narendra Porwal, another trader from Madhya Pradesh. Imports of crude soyoil were up 172% on year at 407,648 tonnes in November, according to data from The Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

GROUNDNUT prices at Gondal in Gujarat were steady at INR 5,100-INR 6,650 per 100 kg, said Ashok Virvani, a trader from the state. Some varieties like Nabar-66 and Java were priced in the range of INR 5,300-INR 6,700 per 100 kg, he said. The bearish trend continues to persist on estimates of higher production and weak export demand, he said.

Groundnut production for the 2024-25 season is projected to reach a record 10.36 million tonnes, a significant increase from 8.67 million tonnes last year, according to the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.

End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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