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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025

 

By Abhijit Doshi and Taniva Singha Roy

 

MUMBAI – After rising 5.2% on Wednesday, turmeric prices fell in early trade Thursday as traders sold at higher levels. However, the underlying trend remains bullish, analysts said. At 1253 IST, the most-active April futures contract on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange was at INR 15,180 per 100 kg, down 1.2% from the previous close.

 

On Wednesday, turmeric prices rose for the fourth consecutive session and closed at INR 15,364 per 100 kg on NCDEX, due to concerns about low supplies until the new crop arrives, analysts said. Usually, harvesting begins in January and new the turmeric crop starts arriving in the markets from February. Demand is strong on account of Ramadan and the ongoing marriage season.

 

Market is concerned about the likely lower supply, mainly from Maharashtra. "Buyers will be active on every dips prices in wake of rising seasonal demand amid ongoing crop concerns in Maharashtra. Firmness in turmeric is likely to continue in wake of severe yield losses in turmeric crop in Maharashtra. Widespread of Karpa and other disease has hampered the crop progress that may lead to fall in 20% -25% yields in major turmeric growing region in Maharashtra. Crop quality will be deteriorated that will force exported to build stocks of fair quality of turmeric to meet their export commitment," SMC Global Securities said in a note Thursday.

 

However, in other major turmeric producing states such as Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, acreage is on an upward trajectory. But prolonged rains have led to delays in harvesting, which could impact the timeline of fresh supplies, Kedia Stocks and Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd. said in a research note.

 

Turmeric is also seeing strong export demand, Kedia Stocks and Commodities said, pointing out that exports from April to October rose by 6.6% to 108,879.96 tonnes from 102,162.90 tonnes in the same period of 2023. In October alone, exports were up 57% on year at 15,938 tonnes. The United Arab Emirates emerged as the largest buyer of Indian turmeric in October, with purchases of 3,076 tonnes, 195% higher than in the previous year. Purchases by Bangladesh rose 48% on year to 1,867 tonnes. Other buyers were the US, Iran, and Malaysia. Fresh export enquiries from Bangladesh have increased, and this will support market sentiment, according to analysts at SMC Global Securities.

 

"Going forward, profit booking is likely to be seen in turmeric that will pull down the turmeric prices in near term. However, major trend in turmeric is likely to be positive mainly due to robust exports amid weaker supply prospects in coming season. Buyers will be active on every dips prices in wake of rising seasonal demand," SMC Global noted.

 

In the near term, prices at major trading centres are likely to rise as arrivals decline, with farmers expected to hold on to stocks in anticipation of an increase in prices. Turmeric could rise up to INR 16,600 per 100 kg in the long term, said Anu V. Pai, analyst at Geojit Communications.  End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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