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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024

NEW DELHI – The US Department of Agriculture has raised its estimate for global oilseed output in 2024-25 (May-Apr) to 683.4 million tonnes in December from 682.2 million tonnes projected last month. The increased projection is mainly due to higher soybean production, partly offsetting lower rapeseed, the department said in its monthly report.

"Soybean production is raised 1.7 million tons to 427.1 million tonnes on higher area for Argentina and Bolivia and higher yields for Canada," the report said. The soybean production forecast for Argentina has been raised by 1 million tonnes to 52 million tonnes. However, estimates for Brazil, China, and Paraguay remain largely unchanged from last month at 169 million tonnes, 20.7 million tonnes, and 11.2 million tonnes, respectively.

Along with forecasts of increased soybean production in 2024-25, the USDA has estimated higher soybean exports, crushing, and ending stocks. Global ending stocks of soybean in 2024-25 are pegged at around 131.9 million tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from the last estimate. 

Global soybean exports for 2024-25 are expected to rise by 200,000 tonnes to 181.9 million tonnes, the report said. "Exports are raised for Canada and Bolivia on higher supplies, and imports are raised for Algeria and Zimbabwe," the department said. 

Meanwhile, soybean meal output in 2024-25 is estimated higher by 990,000 tonnes to 272.5 million tonnes. Imports of soybean meal are forecast to be higher by 650,000 tonnes to 71.9 million tonnes on higher imports for the EU, Algeria, Iran, and Venezuela, the report said. Soybean meal is a by-product of the extraction of soybean oil. 

Meanwhile, India's production of soybean meal has been projected at 880,000 tonnes in 2024-25, unchanged from the estimate last month. Production in 2023-24 has been estimated at 904,000 tonnes. India is one of the largest importers of soyoil and an exporter of soybean meal.

Global soybean oil exports are raised 600,000 tonnes to 12.6 million tonnes on higher exports for Argentina, Brazil, and the US, the report said. Higher shipments of soybean oil are offset by lower palm oil exports due to reduced supplies and lower production for Indonesia in 2023-24 and Malaysia in 2024-25, it added. 

Global ending stocks of oilseed in 2024-25 are pegged at 147.2 million tonnes, down from 147.67 million tonnes projected last month, the department said. Production of oilseeds in the US in 2024-25 is estimated largely steady at 131.16 million tonnes. Global vegetable oil ending stocks estimate is reduced by 400,000 tonnes to 27.9 million tonnes as vegetable oil production is seen falling by 200,000 tonnes to 226.8 million tonnes, the report said. End

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Namrata Rao

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