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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its estimate for global wheat supply in 2024-25 by 600,000 tonnes to 1,060.4 million tonnes due to lower global production, the department said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for December. 

 

Production is forecast to be lower for the European Union, down 1.3 million tonnes at 121.3 million tonnes, due to the updated harvest data showing lower production for several member states. Brazil's wheat output is also forecast lower after the harvest data, the report said.

 

The department has kept India's wheat output estimate unchanged from November at 113.29 million tonnes. The department's estimates show India's wheat production in 2023-24 at 110.55 million tonnes, while the Indian government's output estimate was 113.3 million tonnes.  

 

The department has estimated global trade of wheat at 213.7 million tonnes in December, down 1.0 million tonnes from November due to reductions in exports by the EU and Russia. Russian exports are forecast to be down 1.0 million tonnes to 47.0 million tonnes, despite a strong start to the marketing year, as the imposition of an export quota is expected to constrain exports for the remainder of the year, it said.

 

The department also estimated global consumption of wheat at 802.47 million tonnes, against 803.41 million tonnes in November. Global ending stocks for 2024-25 are projected to be 300,000 tonnes higher at 257.9 million tonnes, but are still the lowest since 2015-16, the department said. 

 

RICE

Moving to rice, the department in its December report has scaled down its supply estimate for 2024-25 by 300,000 tonnes to 712.8 million tonnes due to lower beginning stocks and production. The largest production decline was in the Philippines due to damage from multiple typhoons in November, because of which the department has estimated rice output at 12 million tonnes, against 12.3 million tonnes a month ago.

 

Global consumption estimates of rice for 2024-25 were also reduced by 100,000 tonnes to 530.3 million tonnes due to reductions in demand from Cambodia and Nepal. The global rice trade estimate for 2024-25 has been raised by 1.2 million tonnes to a record 58.1 million tonnes on the back of larger exports to Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Brazil, the USDA report said.

 

Meanwhile, the projected world-ending stocks for 2024-25 are lowered by 200,000 tonnes to 182.5 million tonnes, but these are still 3 million tonnes larger than that in 2023-24, primarily due to higher stocks for India. The department projects India's ending stocks at 44.50 million tonnes in December, unchanged from last month. 

 

It sees India's 2024-25 rice production at 145 million tonnes, and consumption at 121 million tonnes, both unchanged from a month ago. In 2023-24, the country's rice output was estimated at 137.83 million tonnes and consumption was at 116.40 million tonnes. The Indian government pegged rice production in 2023-24 at a record 137.8 million tonnes, up 2.1 million tonnes from the previous year.  End

 

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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