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Informist, Friday, Nov. 22, 2024

 

MUMBAI – The International Grains Council has cut its projection for 2024-25 global grain output by 4 million tonnes from the previous estimate to 2,311 million tonnes due to lower estimates for barley and wheat, according to the global body's November market report released Thursday.   

 

The council has scaled up its estimate for global grain consumption by 4 million tonnes on month to 2,332 million tonnes due to an increase in feed, food, and industrial uses. Ending stocks are expected to be lower from the previous estimate by 8 million tonnes to 576 million tonnes due to drawdowns for wheat, maize, barley, and rye, the council said. The ending stocks would be the smallest in ten years, it said.

 

The global body has also increased its projection for rice production in 2024-25 to a record high of 535 million tonnes from 531 million tonnes a month ago due to larger crop production in India. The council has scaled up its projection for rice output for 2024-25 in India to 144.5 million tonnes, from 142.0 million tonnes a month ago. 

 

However, the Indian government's target for rice production in 2024-25 is 136.3 million tonnes, much lower than the global body's forecast. Recently, the government had pegged the country's kharif rice output at a record of 119.9 million tonnes, up 5.8% from last year's first advance estimate.

 

The council has also increased rice exports from India to 21.1 million tonnes from 20.8 million tonnes a month ago, as the Indian government had removed curbs on rice exports. "Mainly reflecting a global exportable supply boost following the removal of white rice restrictions in India, the IGC GOI (Grains and Oilseeds Index) rice-sub index dropped by 5% over the past five weeks," the report said.  

 

After allowing exports of non-basmati white rice with a minimum export price of $490 per tonne and reducing the export duty on parboiled rice from 20% to 10% in September, the Indian government removed these export curbs in October. It also allowed duty-free exports of paddy and brown rice in October. India first banned exports of broken non-basmati rice in September 2022 and non-basmati white rice in July 2023 to control domestic prices.

The global body also expects the world import demand for rice to expand by 3% on year to 55.9 million tonnes due to potential firmer African demand, more than offsetting reduced shipments to some Asian markets. 

 

Meanwhile, the projection of global wheat output has been cut by 2 million tonnes from its previous month to 796 million tonnes in November due to lower production in the European Union. However, consumption of wheat has risen to 805 million tonnes from 804 million tonnes in October, the report said.   

 

SOYBEAN
"Boosted by expectations for sizeable harvests in major growers and exporters, world soybean output is seen 6% higher on year, at a record of 419 million tonnes (in 2024-25)," the council said. The consumption of soybean is seen at 408 million tonnes, higher from 387 million tonnes a year ago and 406 million tonnes last month. End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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