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Informist, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has scaled up its estimate for global rice supply in 2024-25 by 2.8 million tonnes to 713.1 million tonnes due to higher production for India, the department said in its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.   

The estimate for rice production in India in 2024-25 (Jun-Jul) has been raised by 3.0 million tonnes to 145.0 million, nearly 7.2 million tonnes above the previous record. "Above-average monsoon rainfall and high relative support prices led to record planted area for the kharif season crop as reported in the first advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer’s Welfare," according to the report.

However, the Indian government's target for rice production in 2024-25 is 136.3 million tonnes, much lower than the USDA's forecast. Recently, the government had pegged the country's kharif rice output at a record of 119.9 million tonnes, up 5.8% from last year's first advance estimate.

The agency also scaled up its projection for global rice trade to 56.9 million tonnes, up 450,000 tonnes due to higher exports by India. It now expects India's rice exports at 21.5 million tonnes, against its estimate of 21.0 million tonnes in October. 

After allowing exports of non-basmati white rice with a minimum export price of $490 per tonne and reducing the export duty on parboiled rice from 20% to 10% in September, the Indian government removed these export curbs in October. It also allowed duty-free exports of paddy and brown rice in October. India first banned exports of broken non-basmati rice in September 2022 and non-basmati white rice in July 2023 to control domestic prices.

The report also showed an increase in global consumption and ending stocks. The estimate for global 2024-25 domestic and residual use was raised by 2.4 million tonnes to 530.5 million, primarily due to gains for India, Guinea, and China, the report said. Global ending stocks are seen at 182.7 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes from the estimate the previous month.

WHEAT

The global wheat supply estimate for 2024-25 has been increased by 700,000 tonnes to 1,061.0 million tonnes due to higher production in Kazakhstan, according to the report. "This is the third-largest crop on record for Kazakhstan," it said. Kazakhstan's wheat production  estimate has been raised to 18 million tonnes from 16 million tonnes.  

The department has kept India's wheat output estimate unchanged from October at 113.29 million tonnes. Till September, the department had pegged India's 2024-25 wheat production at 114 million tonnes. The department's estimates show India's wheat production in 2023-24 at 110.55 million tonnes, while the Indian government's output estimate was 113.3 million tonnes.  

The estimate for global wheat consumption has been increased by 900,000 tonnes to 803.4 million tonnes, primarily due to higher feed and residual use in Kazakhstan with its larger production, the report said. However, the agency lowered the world trade estimate by 1.2 million tonnes to 214.7 million due to lower exports by Turkey and Kazakhstan. The 2024-25 global ending stocks estimate was lowered by 150,000 tonnes to 257.57 million tonnes as "decreases for Argentina, China, and Brazil are not completely offset by increases for Kazakhstan and Turkey", the report said.  End

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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