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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – Despite a higher than expected production estimate for tur than last year, India's imports of the pulse, which are already high, are seen rising further in the rest of 2024-25 (Apr-Mar) because of insufficient carry-over stocks and lower government buffer, according to analysts and traders. Imports are also seen up as the government will try to reign in the high prices of the pulse, they said.

 

Imports of tur in Apr-Aug were up 72.6% at 364,148.4 tonnes from 210,931.3 tonnes in the same period last year, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. "Imports have been rising for the last three years," G. Chandrashekar, an agri-business specialist, said. Imports jumped sharply to 840,463.63 tonnes in FY22, and they have been on the higher side since, according to data.

 

Though production of tur has risen over the last three years, it is not enough to satisfy the country's rising consumption, analysts said. In the crop year 2022-23 (Jul-Jun), the tur output was 3.31 million tonnes, in 2023-24, it was 3.42 million tonnes. The government's first estimate for the 2024-25 kharif crop released Tuesday pegs tur production at 3.5 million tonnes. However, it is far lower than the government's target of 4.5 million tonnes.

 

"The acreage under tur this year was high, but low yields led to lower-than-expected output due to weather conditions such as excessive rains in Karnataka and Gujarat," Satish Upadhyay, secretary, India Pulses and Grains Association, said.

 

However, Chandrashekar has a different view. "In my view, the government's estimates are under-stated by 10%, as they have been put together from the states' inputs, and not from the crop cutting survey," he said. "The government is likely to revise the numbers upwards in the next estimate, due in February," he said. The second estimate could peg tur output at 4 million tonnes, he added.

 

Citing market sources, Upadhyay said the actual estimate of the kharif crop is 3.8 million tonnes. However, the country would still fall short of the annual requirement of tur by 1.3 million tonnes, he said.

 

Stocks of tur also are low. According to a weekly report by the India Pulses and Grains Association, India's stocks of both tur and processed tur, or tur dal, were low as of Oct. 28. "Currently, the country has no carry-forward inventories of tur, the government does not have a stock buffer, and stockists do not have enough tur with them either," Upadhyay said.

 

Low production of tur and shortage of stocks have given rise to high prices of the pulse across the country. As of Wednesday, the average price of wholesale tur dal across the country was INR 15,179.8 per 100 kg, while the average retail price was INR 162.04 per kg, according to the price monitoring division of the Department of Consumer Affairs. A year ago, the average wholesale price was INR 14,130.33 per 100 kg and the average retail price was INR 153.9 per kg.

 

Prices of tur dal were already on the higher side due to erratic rainfall in the 2023-24 kharif season. The southwest monsoon last year was affected by the El Nino weather phenomenon, which leads to patchy rainfall across the country. This ultimately led to fall in tur output and increased overall food inflation.

 

In terms of price, tur was being sold at INR 10,500-11,404 per 100 kg in the key spot market of Kalaburagi in Karnataka Wednesday, much higher than the minimum support price of INR 7,550 per 100 kg set by the government for the kharif marketing season 2024-25 (Jul-Jun).

 

"For the government, the consumer is the priority," Chandrashekar said. "Hence, to keep prices from rising further, a rise in imports of pulses is inevitable," he added.

 

"The market is receiving a lot of imports," Ankit Kedia, a local trader from Akola, Maharashtra, said. "Prices of domestic tur are high, so imports are expected, and they will continue on a higher side till December at least," he said.

 

India's tur imports will only increase from hereon, Chandrashekar said. "Imports from Myanmar will be higher in December and January, and the country's total tur imports could touch 1.0-1.2 million tonnes by then," he said. The total imports in FY24 stood at 771,024.63 tonnes.

 

In Apr-Aug, India imported 133,570 tonnes of tur from Myanmar, 103,090.72 tonnes from Sudan, 64,725.74 tonnes from Mozambique, 22,028.74 tonnes from Tanzania, and 12,743.46 tonnes from Malawi.

 

"There will be no fall in imports in the next seven to eight months, especially with the new crop from Myanmar, pegged at 300,000 tonnes, expected to arrive in the country by December," Upadhyay said. However, imports from East African nations such as Mozambique and Tanzania could drop by 15-16% as they send over the last of their crops, he said.  End

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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