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Informist, Friday, Oct. 18, 2024

 

MUMBAI – The International Grains Council retained its projection for global grains production at a record 2,315 million tonnes for 2024-25 for the second month in October, it said Thursday in the monthly grain market report. 

 

Lower wheat production in Australia and Argentina--due to localised dryness ahead of the winter harvest period--and the European Union and Russia was offset by an increase in wheat production in Kazakhstan and barley output in Turkey, the report said. This kept world grain production unchanged on a monthly basis, it said. 

 

The agency reduced its trade forecast for total grains to 419 million tonnes from 421 million tonnes due to lower wheat imports by Turkey and China, and lower barley imports by China and Iran. The consumption estimate for 2024-25 was also revised to 2,328 million tonnes in October from 2,325 million tonnes in September because of higher feed usage.   

WHEAT

Wheat production estimate during 2024-25 was kept unchanged at 798 million tonnes in October. Argentina's wheat production estimate for 2024-25 (Dec-Nov) was slightly reduced to 18.1 million tonnes from 18.4 million tonnes in September, the report showed. Similarly, Australia's wheat production estimate for 2024-25 (Oct-Sept) was revised to 31.3 million tonnes from 31.8 million tonnes in September, it said. Production forecasts for the European Union and the US were also lowered in October. These cuts were offset by an increase in wheat production estimates for Kazakhstan and India.

 

The wheat production estimate for Kazakhstan for 2024-25 (Jul-Jun) was increased by 1 million tonnes to 17 million tonnes in October. The International Grains Council pegged India's wheat output at 113.3 million tonnes, higher than 112.9 million tonnes a month ago and on a par with the Indian government's estimate. The global wheat trade estimate was reduced to 197 million tonnes in October from 198 million tonnes a month ago, while the consumption estimate was raised to 804 million tonnes from 803 million tonnes last month. 

 

RICE

The agency forecast 2024-25 global rice production at 531 million tonnes, higher than 528 million tonnes last month. The global rice trade estimate was also increased to 56 million tonnes from 54 million tonnes a month ago, while the consumption estimate was raised to 528 million tonnes from 525 million tonnes. 

 

The rise in world trade estimates was attributed to higher exports from India owing to looser restrictions on non-basmati white rice exports. The Indian government in September eased the curbs on rice exports. It allowed the export of non-basmati white rice, which was banned since July 2023, at a minimum export price of $490 per tonne. It also reduced the export duty on parboiled rice, imposed in August 2023, to 10% from 20%. The government had earlier restricted rice exports to ensure adequate local stock and keep domestic prices in check. The government in September also removed the $950-per-tonne minimum export price on basmati rice shipments. 

 

The International Grains Council increased its forecast for Indian rice exports to 20.8 million tonnes from 17.3 million tonnes a month ago. For 2023-24, the agency pegged India's rice exports at 14.7 million tonnes. Further, the agency decreased its forecasts for countries that have been India's competitors in rice exports. Rice export estimates for Thailand and Vietnam, the two other largest rice exporters, were pegged lower in October, along with Pakistan, the report said. 

 

SOYBEAN

Due to expectations of heavy crops in key producers, the 2024-25 global soybean output is predicted to be the largest on record and 7% higher on year at 421 million tonnes, according to the report. "With growing demand from feed, food and industrial sectors set to sustain an uptrend in processing, world utilisation is seen advancing by 5%, with aggregate inventories also reaching a high," it said. 

 

Trade is anticipated to edge up to a peak of 179 million tonnes during 2024-25, higher than 176 million tonnes from a month ago, it said. This is due to another season of above-average deliveries to China. Import estimates to China were increased to 108.5 million tonnes from 108 million tonnes last month. "On the exporter side, the US and Brazil are set to dispatch more," it said. Exports from the US were pegged at 50 million tonnes in October, higher than 49.8 million tonnes a month ago.  

 

MAIZE

The International Grains Council left maize production and trade estimates unchanged at 1,224 million tonnes and 181 million tonnes, respectively, in October. However, the consumption estimate was raised to 1,231 million tonnes from 1,230 million tonnes last month, and carryover stock estimates were increased to 279 million tonnes from 276 million tonnes a month ago.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Namrata Rao

 

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