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Informist, Monday, Oct. 14, 2024

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture Friday cut its global wheat supply estimate for 2024-25 by 1.9 million tonnes to 1,060.3 million tonnes due to lower output in the European Union, Russia, India, and Brazil, the department said in its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. In its previous monthly forecast, it had pegged world wheat supply at 1,062.1 million tonnes.  

 

According to the report, global wheat production for 2024-25 has been projected at 794.08 million tonnes in October, down from 796.88 million tonnes in September. "Declines in supplies were only partially offset by higher production for Ukraine and larger beginning stocks for Russia," the department said.

 

Production in the European Union and Russia has been projected a million lower than the last month at 123 million tonnes and 82 million tonnes, respectively, in October. Brazil's production has been cut by half-a-million to 9.0 million tonnes in October.  

 

Till September, the department had pegged India's 2024-25 wheat production at 114 million tonnes. However, in October, it reduced the country's wheat output to 113.29 million tonnes. The department estimates show India's wheat production in 2023-24 at 110.55 million tonnes, while the Indian government's output estimate was at 113.3 million tonnes.  

 

Meanwhile, global wheat consumption has been reduced to 802.54 million tonnes in October, from 804.90 million tonnes in September, the report said. This was attributed to lower food, seed, and industrial use in India and Afghanistan, according to the report. India's wheat consumption forecast has been revised to 112.29 million tonnes in October from 113.00 million tonnes in September. 

   

However, the department has increased the projection for ending stocks to 257.72 million tonnes in October from 257.22 million tonnes in September. Despite an increase, the projection remains to be the lowest since 2015-16, it said. "World trade is decreased 0.7 million tonnes to 215.82 million on reduced exports by the EU (European Union), which are partly offset by an increase for Ukraine," according to the report.

 

RICE

The 2024-25 global outlook this month is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks, the report said. Supplies have been raised by 5.6 million tonnes to 710.3 million tonnes, primarily on larger beginning stocks and production for India, where production has been raised to a record 142.0 million tonnes from 139.0 million tonnes in September, the report said. "An above-average monsoon season and more rice planted at the expense of cotton are factors behind the record output," it said.  

 

World 2024-25 consumption has been raised by 600,000 tonnes to a record 528.1 million tonnes on increases in several countries, more than offsetting a 1.0-million-tonne reduction for India. Global 2024-25 trade is 2.2 million tonnes higher at 56.5 million on larger exports for India, which are raised by 3.0 million tonnes to 21.0 million.  

 

In September, the Indian government had eased curbs on rice exports. It had allowed exports of non-basmati white rice, banned in July 2023, at a minimum export price of $490 per tonne and reduced the export duty on parboiled rice to 10% from 20?rlier. The government in August 2023 had imposed a 20% duty on the export of parboiled rice to ensure adequate local stock and keep domestic prices in check. It had also removed the $950 per tonne minimum export price on basmati rice shipments. 

 

"Exports for Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam are all reduced with the removal of India's export ban," according to the report. "All these exporters had larger exports for 2023-24, mostly in response to India's export restrictions".  

 

The department has projected global ending stocks at 182.2 million tonnes, up 5.0 million tonnes from the previous month. This is primarily due to higher stocks in India, where they have increased by 4.0 million tonnes to a record of 43.0 million.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Manisha Baxla

 

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