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Informist, Friday, Sep 20, 2024

By Anjali Lavania, Taniva Singha Roy, and Sandeep Sinha

MUMBAI - India's soybean production is projected at 11.0 mln tn in 2024-25 with a carryover stock of 800,000 tn to 1 mln tn, Abhay Bharadwaj, an edible oil market expert from GGN Research, told Informist in the sidelines of Globoil India 2024 event here. This will amount to a total supply of nearly 11.8 mln tn soybean during the year, he said.

Soybean is a kharif crop sown during Jun-Jul and harvested in Oct-Nov. Production of soybean in 2023-24 was pegged at 13.1 mln tn, according to the third advanced estimates by the agriculture ministry. Around 9-10 mln tn soybean is comfortable for crushing and meeting the consumption demand, said Rajesh Patel, of GGN International.

With a production of 11 mln tn and 800,000 tn carryover, supply will be sufficient, which will hit the already falling prices of soybean, Bharadwaj said. Soybean prices have fallen below the minimum support price of 4,892 rupees per 100 kg in most parts of the country. In some districts of Madhya Pradesh, prices have fallen to a decade-low of 3,500-4,500 rupees per 100 kg. The fall in prices comes just ahead of the start of new crop arrivals at mandis.

However, if the government buys soybean above the minimum support price from farmers, prices will see some support, Bharadwaj said. Last week, the Centre had approved the Madhya Pradesh government's proposal to buy soybean from farmers at the minimum support price. It also approved 1.56 mln tn procurement of soybean, with Maharashtra contributing 1.3 mln tn, Karnataka 100,000 tn, and Telangana 50,000 tn.

Additionally, soybean prices rose 50–100 rupees to 4,500-4,600 rupees per 100 kg in markets like Indore in Madhya Pradesh as the Centre increased import duty on edible oils. Import duty on crude and refined edible oils increased to 20% and 32.5% from nil and 12.5%, respectively, and the effective import duty on crude oils will increase to 27.5% from 5.5% and that on refined oils will rise to 35.75% from 13.75%.

The price rise due to the import duty hike has now been factored in and prices may remain at the current levels due to higher arrivals in upcoming months, Bharadwaj said.  End

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

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