More Stories

Informist, Friday, Sep 20, 2024
 

MUMBAI - The International Grains Council has retained its projection for global grains production at a record 2,315 mln tn for 2024-25 and for carryover stocks at 581 mln tn. The adjustments this month included another downgrade for the European Union, which was offset by increases in production outlook for the US, Australia, and Argentina.

"A modest increase in world total grains production in 2024-25, to a record 2,315 mln tn, reflects anticipated larger sorghum, wheat, oats and barley turnout," the council said.

Despite the output being higher on year, the total grain availability is likely to dip on reduced opening stocks as well as a rise in consumption to a new peak of 2,325 mln tn on the back of a strong growth in industrial use. At 581 mln tn, the council projects world foodgrain carryover stocks at a 10-season low, with the sharpest on-year decline in wheat and maize. 

Global output of wheat is seen at 798 mln tn, down from 799 mln tn estimated in the past month, and 799 mln tn estimated for the previous year as well. The consumption estimate for wheat has been kept steady at 803 mln tn. The estimates for carry-over stocks have been revised upward to 267 mln tn from 266 mln tn the month before, the report said.

India's wheat production in 2023-24 is estimated at 110.6 mln tn, unchanged from the previous estimate. For 2024-25, the council projects wheat production in India at 112.9 mln tn, unchanged from its July estimate.

The agency has estimated India's wheat exports in 2023-24 and 2024-25 at 300,000 tn each. Though the government had banned wheat exports in May 2022 to control rising domestic prices, it sells wheat to a few countries to address food security concerns.

Meanwhile, the estimate for global rice production has been maintained at 528 mln tn whereas those for consumption has been reduced to 525 mln tn from 526 mln tn earlier. Boosted by larger harvests in Asia, global rice production is estimated at an all-time high in 2023-24, up 1% on year, with total consumption, primarily for food, holding steady for a second successive year. For 2023-24, the estimates for consumption were 521 mln tn and production 522 mln tn. 

The agency raised India's rice production estimate for 2024-25 to 139 mln tn, from the previous estimate of 137.5 mln tn. India's rice production in 2023-24 is seen 136.7 mln tn, unchanged from last month projection. The forecast for India's rice exports for 2023-24 has been revised down to 15.2 mln tn from the previous estimate of 15.4 mln tn while estimates for 2024-25 remained unchanged at 17.3 mln tn.

Recently, the Indian government removed the minimum export price on basmati rice from $950 per tn earlier. Currently, the government is also mulling over allowing exports of non-basmati rice amid a 20-year-high rice stocks with the government.  

For maize, the output estimate for 2024-25 has been lowered to 1,224 mln tn from the last projection of 1,226 mln tn and 1,226 mln tn in the previous year. The consumption estimate has been increased to 1,230 mln tn from 1,229 mln tn a month and 1,223 mln tn a year ago.

The August report has maintained its estimated global soybean output for 2024-25 at 419 mln tn, which is the same as the output one year ago. The consumption estimate stands unchanged at 406 mln tn, while it is higher than last year's estimate at 385 mln tn.  End 

Reported by Pallavi Singhal

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2024. All rights reserved.