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Informist, Friday, Sep 13, 2024

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has lowered its global wheat production estimate for 2024-25 to 796.9 mln tn in September from 798.3 mln tn projected last month due to a reduction in output from the European Union. However, the production estimate remains at a record level as the reduction is partially offset by higher production in Australia and Ukraine.

 

The estimate of production in the European Union has been lowered by 4 mln tn to 124 mln tn due to unfavourable harvest weather in France and Germany, the report showed. The forecast for production in Australia has been raised by 2 mln tn to 32 mln because of favourable conditions in Western Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland. Ukraine's production estimate has been raised by 700,000 tn to 22.3 mln tn, the report said, citing the harvest data released by the country's ministry of agriculture. 

 

Supplies of wheat are estimated to increase by 1.5 mln tn to 1,062.1 mln tn as higher beginning stocks have more than offset the lower production, the report said. Beginning stocks for 2024-25 have been raised primarily for Canada, as Canada's 2023-24 ending stocks were significantly higher than the department's previous estimate.

 

The projection for global consumption has been raised by 880,000 tn to 804.9 mln tn primarily due to higher feed and residual use for several countries, which has more than offset the reduction in output from the European Union, the report said. The department has reduced its estimate for the European Union to nearly 109 mln tn from 110.25 mln tn a month ago. 

 

Global ending stocks for 2024-25 have been raised by 600,000 tn to 257.2 mln tn due to an increase in production in Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan, the report said. An increase in production in these countries has more than offset the reduced ending stocks in Australia, Turkey, and several other countries, the report said.

 

India's production has been projected at 114 mln tn in 2024-25, unchanged from last month, the report showed. Production in 2023-24 has been estimated at 110.5 mln tn, lower than the government's estimate of 112.9 mln tn.

 

RICE

The 2024-25 rice outlook is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged exports, reduced use in the US, and higher ending stocks, according to the report. Supplies are seen increasing by 300,000 tn to 704.7 mln tn, primarily due to higher beginning stocks and production in India, which is partly offset by the lower production in Bangladesh. Production in Bangladesh was reduced due to recent flooding, which decreased the expected harvested area, the report said.

 

The department has predicted India's opening stocks at 39 mln tn in Sep, up from 38.5 mln tn a month ago. Estimates for India's rice production for 2024-25 have been raised by 1 mln tn to a record 139 mln tn due to a higher-than-expected harvested area for the kharif crop. Harvests have increased mainly in eastern Indian states, which have received better rainfall in the current monsoon season than the previous year, the report said.

 

The projection of global rice consumption has been raised by 500,000 tn to 527.5 mln tn as an increase in India's consumption by 1 mln tn is partly offset by reductions in Bangaldesh and other countries, the report said. India's consumption for 2024-25 is estimated at 120 mln tn, the report said. 

 

Global ending stocks for 2024-25 are projected at 177.2 mln tn, down by 200,000 tn primarily due to reductions in Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Senegal, which were more than offset by increases in India and Indonesia, according to the report.

 

Despite restrictions on rice exports, India remains the leading exporter at 18 mln tn, which is nearly 3 mln tn higher than in 2023-24. The country supplies white rice to a few countries to meet their food security needs based on requests from their governments.

Rice exports from India attract 20% duty on the parboiled variety and a $950 minimum export price for the basmati variety. The government prohibited the export of the broken rice variety in September 2022 and non-basmati white rice in July 2023.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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