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Informist, Tuesday, Aug 13, 2024

 

MUMBAI - The US Department of Agriculture has scaled up its global wheat production estimate for 2024-25 to 798.3 mln tn from 796.2 mln tn projected last month mainly due to higher output in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia. 

 

The estimate for production in Ukraine has been raised by 2.1 mln tn to 21.6 mln tn based on the country's state statistical service data indicating a larger-than-expected harvested area, the report said. The forecast for Kazakhstan's production has been increased by 1.5 mln tn to 16 mln tn on a higher yield forecast based on abundant rainfall. The projected output for Australia has risen by 1 mln tn to 30 mln tn, the data shared by USDA showed. 

 

Supplies have been projected to increase on larger production from select countries, raising global supplies by 3.5 mln tn to 1.06 bln tn, the report said. The raised projection comes despite a projected fall in output from the European Union and the US, as per the report.

 

The estimate for global consumption has been raised by 4.1 mln tn to around 804 mln tn mainly on higher feed and residual use for the European Union, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, the report said. The report also forecast larger beginning stocks for several countries, including the EU. The beginning stocks for 2024-25 have been projected higher at 262.4 mln tn in August from 261.0 mln in July, the report showed. Global ending stocks for 2024-25 have been projected lower at 256.62 mln tn in August from 257.24 mln in July, the report showed. 

 

India's production has been projected at 114 mln tn in 2024-25, unchanged from last month, the report showed. Production in 2023-24 has been estimated at 110.5 mln tn, lower than the government's estimate of 112.9 mln tn.  

 

RICE

The 2024-25 global rice outlook is for reduced supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are seen falling by 1 mln tn to 704.4 mln tn, mainly due to lower beginning stocks for Vietnam and the Philippines along with reduced production for Vietnam, the report said. 

 

The forecast for global trade has been reduced by 200,000 tn on month to 54.4 mln tn in August, mainly due to reduced exports from Brazil and Vietnam. Rice exports by Brazil in 2024-25 are seen at 1.2 mln tn, down from 1.3 mln tn, and by Vietnam at 7.4 mln tn against 7.5 mln tn a month ago. 

 

Production in India is projected at 138 mln tn, unchanged from last month, while consumption is pegged at 120 mln tn, according to the report. India remains the leading exporter at 18 mln tn, 2 mln higher than in 2023-24.

 

Rice exports from India attract 20% duty on the parboiled variety and a $950 minimum export price for the basmati variety. The government prohibited the export of the broken rice variety in September 2022 and non-basmati white rice in July 2023. India supplies white rice to a few countries to meet their food security needs based on requests from their governments.

 

Global ending stocks in 2024-25 are projected at 177.4 mln tn, slightly lower than the estimate of 178.1 mln tn in July.  End

 

Reported by Pallavi Singhal

Edited by Namrata Rao

 

 

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