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Informist, Monday, Jul 15, 2024

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has scaled up its global wheat production estimate for 2024-25 to 796.2 mln tn from 791 mln tn projected last month, mainly due to higher output in the US, Pakistan, and Canada. 

 

The estimate for production in Pakistan has been raised by 1.4 mln tn to a record 31.4 mln, based on government estimates indicating a large yield, according to a report. The forecast for Canada's production has been increased by 1.0 mln tn to 35.0 mln due to improved moisture conditions in the Prairie provinces.

 

Higher production and beginning stocks have led to a rise of 6.9 mln tn in supplies for 2024-25 at 1.1 bln tn. The beginning stocks for 2024-25 have been projected higher at 261 mln tn in July from 260 mln in June, the report showed.    

 

The estimate for global consumption has been raised by 1.9 mln tn to around 800 mln tn due to higher food, seed, feed, and industrial and residual use in several countries, the report said. 

 

Global ending stocks for 2024-25 are seen higher by 5 mln tn at 257.2 mln tn, largely due to an increase in production in the US, China, Argentina, Pakistan, and Canada, which will more than offset reductions in Russia, the EU, and Iran.

 

Meanwhile, India's production has been projected at 114 mln tn in 2024-25, unchanged from last month, the report showed. Production in 2023-24 has been estimated at 110.5 mln tn, lower than the government's estimate of 112.9 mln tn.  

 

RICE

The 2024-25 global rice outlook is for larger supplies, export, consumption and ending stocks. Supplies are seen increasing by 900,000 tn to 705.4 mln tn, mostly due to a record forecast of 10 mln tn for Pakistan, where better planting conditions and water availability are likely to boost yield, the report said. 

 

The forecast for global trade has been raised by 700,000 tn on month to 54.6 mln tn in July, mainly due to higher exports by Pakistan. Rice exports by Pakestan in 2024-25 are seen at 5.9 mln tn, up from 5.3 mln tn a month ago. 

 

Production in India is projected at 138.0 mln tn, unchanged from last month, while consumption is pegged at 120 mln tn, according to the report. India remains the leading exporter at 18 mln tn, 2.0 mln higher than in 2023-24.

 

Rice exports from India attract 20% duty on the parboiled variety and a $950 minimum export price for the basmati variety. The government prohibited export of the broken rice variety in September 2022 and non-basmati white rice in July 2023. India supplies white rice to a few countries to meet their food security needs based on requests from their governments.

 

Global ending stocks in 2024-25 are projected at 178.1 mln tn, slightly higher than the estimate of 178 mln tn in June.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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