Informist, Thursday, Jul. 10, 2025

--OPEC: Global oil demand seen rising to nearly 123 mln bpd by 2050

--OPEC: See India leading others in crude oil demand growth by 2050

--OPEC: India to account for 8.2 mln bpd of total oil demand growth by 2050

--OPEC: See India's oil demand rising to 13.7 mln bpd by 2050

--OPEC: China's oil demand seen rising by 1.8 mln bpd by 2050

--OPEC: Share of OPEC, allies in global oil supply seen up at 52% in 2050

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – Global oil demand is expected to grow to nearly 123 million barrels per day by 2050, an increase of 19.2 million barrels per day from 2024, with developing economies, particularly India, leading the growth, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its World Oil Outlook 2025. However, OPEC pointed out that oil demand in developed countries is expected to decline.

The OPEC dismissed the notion of an imminent peak in oil demand, citing robust consumption trends in transport, petrochemicals, and aviation sectors. "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," the report said, highlighting the large share of oil in the global energy mix. Oil is set to maintain the largest share in the energy mix in 2050 at just below 30%. The combined share of oil and gas is expected to stay above 50?tween 2024 and 2050, the report said.

From 103.7 million barrels per day in 2024, global oil demand is projected to rise by 19.2 million barrels per day to 122.9 million barrels per day in 2050, with India alone contributing 8.2 million barrels per day of the increase — the largest among all countries.

India's total oil demand is set to increase to 13.7 million barrels per day by 2050 from 5.6 million barrels per day in 2024. Although an increase in overall oil demand is expected across most sectors, road transportation is projected to witness the most significant growth, rising by 4.6 million barrels per day to 6.9 million barrels per day in 2050. The exponential expansion of India's passenger car fleet will be the key factor driving this growth.

OPEC expects India's passenger car fleet to rise to more than 240 million in 2050 from around 50 million in 2024. Moreover, commercial vehicles are expected to increase fourfold by 2050. "Simultaneously, the market penetration of EVs in India is likely to remain limited, highlighting the country's expected continued reliance on ICE (internal combustion engine)-powered vehicles and a significant oil demand rise in the road transportation sector," the report said.

The growth in oil demand in India's aviation sector is also rising at a rapid pace and is expected to reach 900,000 barrels per day by 2050, it said. The Indian oil market features relatively high demand for other products such as bitumen, petroleum coke, lubricants, and waxes, compared to other regions. A large portion of these products serves as refinery fuels with the remaining volumes utilised to expand road networks and generate energy-intensive goods such as cement, aluminium, and steel. All of these sectors are set to expand in India and, therefore, related oil demand is also expected to rise, to 1.6 million barrels per day in 2050 from 1 million barrels per day in 2024.

China's oil demand is projected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day during the same period. Other Asia, West Asia, and African countries together will add over 14 million barrels per day, the report said. Meanwhile, demand in the OECD is expected to decline by 8.5 million barrels per day.

Despite the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and renewables, internal combustion engine vehicles are expected to dominate the global fleet through 2050, accounting for 72% of the total. The global vehicle fleet is expected to increase to 2.9 billion in 2050 from 1.7 billion in 2024, the report said.

To meet the rising energy needs and offset the natural decline in mature fields, the global oil sector will require cumulative investments of $18.2 trillion by 2050. Of this, $14.9 trillion is needed for upstream exploration and production. "The challenge of meeting these investment requirements is huge, and any shortfall in meeting these needs could impact market stability and energy security," the report said.

Global oil liquids supply, which stood at 102.4 million barrels per day in 2024, is expected to increase to 123.0 million barrels per day by 2050 to meet rising demand. Of this, supply from OPEC and its allies under the Declaration of Cooperation is forecast to grow by 15 million barrels per day, to 64.1 million barrels per day from 49.1 million barrels per day. This will lift their share of the global market to 52% by 2050 from 48% in 2024.

Output from non-OPEC producers such as the US is seen to plateau in the 2030s. The US is expected to lead non-OPEC supply growth until 2030, but production is forecast to decline thereafter.

Global oil trade is also set to expand, rising nearly 25% to 67.5 million barrels per day by 2050. West Asia will remain the key supplier, with more than 80% of its exports heading to Asia-Pacific. The trade route between West Asia and Asia-Pacific is expected to account for half of the global interregional oil trade by 2050. End

US$1 = INR 85.64

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Afra Abubacker and Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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