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Informist, Monday, Jul. 28, 2025
By Anand JC
NEW DELHI – NTPC Ltd. is expected to report a low single-digit decline in its revenue for the June quarter owing to weak power generation, according to analysts. The company will disclose its financials for the reporting quarter on Tuesday.
NTPC's net profit is expected to grow over 4% on year for the June quarter to INR 47.1 billion, according to an average of five brokerages' estimates. Nuvama Wealth Management's forecast of INR 43.8 billion net profit is the lowest while JM Financial Institutional Securities' expectation of INR 56.1 billion is the highest.
Nuvama has attributed its expectation of a 4% on-year bottom line growth for the state-run power utility company to the limited commissioning of projects over the last 12 months.
The company expects to commission projects worth 11.8 gigawatt in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) on a consolidated basis, its management had said in an analyst call in May. Of this, 7.2 GW would be renewable capacity, the company had said. NTPC has targeted the addition of around 1.5 GW of this renewable energy capacity in the June quarter.
However, Motilal Oswal Financial Services estimates the company has added renewable capacity of around 600 megawatts during the June quarter.
NTPC is India's largest power utility company and meets a quarter of the country's power requirement. NTPC generates power through thermal, hydroelectric, solar, and wind power plants.
NTPC's revenue is expected to fall nearly 2% on year for the reporting quarter to INR 436.7 billion, as per consensus estimates. Kotak Institutional Equities' expectation of INR 391.4 billion revenue is the lowest while JM Financial's estimate of INR 465 billion is the highest.
The fall in revenue coincides with the 2?ll in power generation during the June quarter to 472.7 billion units. According to Motilal Oswal, this fall was due to a decline in power generation by conventional sources. Renewable energy output jumped 17% on year during the latest quarter, Motilal Oswal said.
NTPC is expected to report earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 127.9 billion, according to the average of four brokerage views. This translates to a moderate 3% on-year increase from INR 124.4 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.
Nuvama Wealth Management's estimate of INR 119.9 billion EBITDA is the lowest and JM Financial's forecast of INR 147.3 billion is the highest.
"Profitability (of NTPC) is relatively insulated in the standalone business due to the regulatory mechanism as returns under the regulated model by and large remain assured," Nuvama said.
NTPC functions on a tariff model regulated by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, which gives it fixed returns on power generation assets. The company had reported a standalone regulated equity of INR 886 billion in the year-ago quarter and of INR 909.02 billion in the March quarter. On Friday, shares of the company closed at INR 333.20 on the National Stock Exchange, down 1.7%. NTPC's shares have fallen over 3% since it reported its March quarter earnings on May 24.
Of the 11 brokerage recommendations available with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' call on NTPC at an average target price of INR 407 per share. This implies an upside of 22%. Only one firm has a hold call on its stock and none have a sell.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for NTPC based on reports from five brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit:
| BROKERAGES |
Net sales (in INR million) |
Net profit (In INR million) |
EBITDA (in INR million) |
|
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd |
4,64,961 |
56,060 |
1,47,285 |
|
MiraeAsset Sharekhan Ltd |
4,36,800 |
47,100 |
|
|
Kotak Institutional Equities |
3,91,351 |
44,359 |
1,20,987 |
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd |
4,53,400 |
44,100 |
1,23,300 |
|
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd |
4,36,829 |
43,785 |
1,19,869 |
|
Average |
4,36,668.20 |
47,080.80 |
1,27,860.25 |
End
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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